WEBVTT

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<v Geoff>Good morning, good afternoon,</v>

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or good evening, wherever or whenever you are.

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Welcome to webinar Wednesday,

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the best day of the week.

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I'm Geoff Rasmussen, your host.

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And I'm live here at webinar headquarters

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in beautiful Middleton, Idaho.

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Thanks to Marian Pierre-Louis,

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who is also here behind the scenes today

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answering your questions.

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She comes to you from Massachusetts.

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And the star of our show today is Jonny Perl,

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who is live in London, England

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for his class, "What Are the Odds?

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"An Online Tool that Can Help Solve DNA Puzzles".

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And sometimes here I tell you that I've got

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a special feeling about a webinar,

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and well, I've got a special feeling about this

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specific webinar today.

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And while I haven't heard Jonny speak on this specific

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topic recently,

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my prediction is that likely most of you

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will have many aha moments,

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moments where the DNA light bulb is finally bright.

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And you'll have increased hope to discover

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your elusive ancestors.

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And afterwards, I'll be saying I told you so.

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Well, I'm very excited for me and for all of you.

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So thanks to Jonny,

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and thanks to the more than 2700 of you

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from 40 countries around the world

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who have registered for the live webinar.

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So nice to share part of your day with you.

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Jonny's seven page syllabus,

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which you are already raving about here in my chat log,

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is available on the webinar's registration page right now.

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And while the syllabus materials

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are usually accessed with a webinar membership only,

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today's syllabus is unlocked and open to all viewers.

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You can also grab it in the webinar library afterwards.

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Those with a webinar membership also have access

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to more than 5000 pages of additional syllabus materials.

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And if you're not yet a subscriber,

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and you do join up today,

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you'll have immediate access to this

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and to all 1200 plus classes in the library.

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And one reason I'm excited about today

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is that Jonny is the presenter

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of the number one webinar recording of all time.

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His webinar, "An Introduction to DNA Painter,"

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that was broadcast just about a year ago

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is at the very top of the charts.

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And my guess is that most of you have viewed it already,

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it's still there in the library waiting for you

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either to watch it again or for the first time.

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Well stick around afterwards where I'll have

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these door prizes.

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First I'll have the PDF Book, "Kindred Voices:

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"Listening for Our Ancestors".

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And then I'll have the first of Blaine Bettinger's

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five part series on DNA for beginners.

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This entire series of course is available

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anytime to webinar members.

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Next I'll have the Legacy Family Tree Software

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to give away.

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And then, a one month's webinar membership

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for one of you.

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And now I'm pleased to introduce our speaker.

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Jonny Perl is a genealogist, DNA enthusiast,

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and web developer based in London.

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He is the creator and founder of DNAPainter.com,

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an award winning web application

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for chromosome mapping.

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Jonny has also collaborated with leading genetic

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genealogists to create other popular tools

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that help people around the world interpret

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the results of their autosomal DNA tests.

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His passion is in exploring new ways of visualizing DNA

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and family tree information

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to help make it more inviting and user friendly

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for all of us.

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He was born in Belfast.

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Jonny has family roots in Ireland,

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England, and Germany.

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So, please put together your virtual hands

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and let's give Jonny Perl a nice, warm webinar welcome.

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Jonny, how are you and welcome to the show.

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<v Jonny>I'm very well, thanks Geoff.</v>

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Thank you very much for having me this evening.

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<v Geoff>So good, well it's evening for you isn't it?</v>

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And I see people here from New Zealand,

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where they're telling me it's two a.m. there.

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So yeah, good morning, good afternoon,

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or good evening.

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Well Jonny, your screen looks perfect

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and the time's all yours.

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Can't wait.

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<v Jonny>Fabulous.</v>

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Okay, well thanks everyone for joining me today.

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As you will have gathered,

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I am here to talk about "What Are the Odds?".

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This is a tool which is hosted at my website,

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DNAPainter.com,

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and it is intended for people who,

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excuse me,

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it's intended for people who have a genealogical mystery

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that they want to solve using DNA.

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So what am I gonna talk about today?

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Well, I guess I'm gonna introduce what it's for,

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I'm going to introduce who made it,

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and I'm gonna try and introduce the concept

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with a simple analogy that I hope

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will clarify things for you.

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Then I am going to talk about how you can use it.

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So, what you need in order to use it,

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what are some methods for placing matches in a tree?

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I'm gonna have a very quick glossary of terms.

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I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible

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but there are a couple of,

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there's some terminology that will useful to you.

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And I'm gonna give you a brief hands-on guide

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to basic operations of the site.

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Now, when you're giving a presentation about a website,

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it would feel painful just to be showing

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the use of that website all the time.

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However, I'm not sure that's done very often

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and I would like beginners to know exactly

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what it is you have to do to do basic operations

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within "What Are the Odds?".

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So, I have a little section just showing

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an overview of the basics, if you like.

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And then, I'm gonna move on to two case studies.

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And I'm gonna cover some caveats

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and limitations of the tool as well.

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And then finally, the exciting thing

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is I'm going to introduce the new beta version

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of "What Are the Odds?",

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which launched today.

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Now, "What Are the Odds?" is shortened

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to WATO quite a lot.

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I tend to say "What Are the Odds?"

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because when I say WATO,

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in an English accent, it sounds very strange

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and I don't like it.

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So you might hear me say "What Are the Odds?" very quickly,

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but on the screen you'll see WATO.

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Okay?

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As usual, I will be using some case studies

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and some real life examples in here,

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but I won't be naming any living people

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without their permission.

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And you'll see some photos of people.

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Those aren't real photos of real people,

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but hopefully they will make the case studies

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feel as real as they are.

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So, "What Are the Odds?"

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How can I explain "What Are the Odds?"

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It is a tool for people who want to use DNA

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to solve a genealogical mystery.

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So, what is a genealogical mystery?

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Well, obviously what it normally means

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is that a connection to the tree

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is actually missing

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if there's someone where you don't know who they are.

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It might be your father,

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it might be your grandmother.

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But it's someone where the genealogical connection

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has been broken.

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However, there is still a genetic link

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between you and this person.

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And obviously if they're a close relative

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like a father or a grandmother,

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that's quite a significant genetic connection.

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So, you can use DNA matches to bridge this gap.

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So if you can connect relevant DNA matches.

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So for example, DNA matches I know of are a mystery

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missing father or a mystery missing grandfather,

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if I can connect them together into a tree,

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then the kind of raise on data for WATO if you like

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is that you enter amounts of shared DNA

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that you share with different people within this tree,

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and then "What Are the Odds?" is able to figure out

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where you might fit into that tree

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based on these amounts of DNA shared.

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Now, if you're kind of,

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if your head is spinning at that description,

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fear not, I'm gonna be kind of circling over it

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a few times during this presentation.

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I think it'd be very unusual for someone

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to grasp it if it was the first time

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they'd heard what it does.

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But hopefully by the end of today,

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things will be clearer to you.

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A brief bit of background about the tool.

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So Leah Larkin, who we can see on the left there,

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she came up with the concept of "What Are the Odds?".

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She collaborated with Andrew Millard in the middle there.

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My fellow countryman.

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And he created a mathematical model

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to calculate the odds which we'll be hearing

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a lot more about later,

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and then my role was to build the online interface.

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And I guess the reason I'm going through that

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is that each of these people brought different specialties

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to the table.

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So Leah obviously, it was her master plan

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and she has incredible attention to detail

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and was able to drive things forward.

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Andrew, obviously his specialty is the maths.

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And my specialism is really the user interface.

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Obviously I'm a genealogist and I'm obsessed

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with this stuff,

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but I guess what I brought to the table

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was web development.

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So Leah and Andrew have actually both also made

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videos about "What Are the Odds?"

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And there's a link in today's syllabus,

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and it'll be interesting to see

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how you find the webinar today.

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In my experience, different people respond differently

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to the different styles of presentation.

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So if what I say today doesn't jive with you,

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doesn't ring any bells,

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you can obviously try these other videos by other people.

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So, as I expect a lot of us here have experienced,

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a DNA match list can be overwhelming

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when you first get it.

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You see this sea of people.

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You don't necessarily know who any of them are at first.

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And if you've got a specific mystery to solve,

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that can be even more bewildering.

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Then of course,

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if you start to kind of scratch

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at the surface and wake up a bit,

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there are loads and loads of clues in that match list.

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So you have the amount of DNA

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that you share with each person.

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So that gives you an indication

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of how closely you might be linked to them.

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And then also, you have,

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the most powerful tool probably offered

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by all the companies,

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which is shared matches.

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So shared matches reveal these networks of people

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who share DNA with each other as well as with you.

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So the goal for "What Are the Odds?"

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is to help you use these clues together

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to solve your family mysteries.

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Okay, so deep breath,

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I'm gonna try an analogy now

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and I want you to come with me on a little journey.

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So I'd like you to imagine that you're lost in the dark.

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You don't know where you are at all.

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And you fumble in your bag and you find a torch.

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And you turn the torch on and you see

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a sign which signs that,

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it's a road sign that says you're 493 miles

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from Salt Lake City.

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And you think okay,

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well Salt Lake City, Salt Lake City,

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okay I know where that is.

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So I'm about 493 miles from here.

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Now, of course I'm not exactly 493 miles from here

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because roads don't tend to be completely straight.

265
00:10:58.020 --> 00:11:00.490
I'm about 493 miles from here.

266
00:11:00.490 --> 00:11:04.620
So I guess I should be somewhere within this ring

267
00:11:04.620 --> 00:11:06.670
around Salt Lake City.

268
00:11:06.670 --> 00:11:09.110
But, as you can see, that doesn't narrow things

269
00:11:09.110 --> 00:11:10.330
down very much does it?

270
00:11:10.330 --> 00:11:13.470
I could be up in Montana.

271
00:11:13.470 --> 00:11:15.110
I could be in California.

272
00:11:15.110 --> 00:11:16.733
I could be in New Mexico.

273
00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:20.360
I could almost even be in South Dakota.

274
00:11:20.360 --> 00:11:23.660
So knowing that I'm 493 miles from Salt Lake City

275
00:11:23.660 --> 00:11:26.470
does not actually help me to find out where I am

276
00:11:26.470 --> 00:11:29.150
in a very real sense.

277
00:11:29.150 --> 00:11:31.560
So let's imagine maybe I'm just dazed and confused

278
00:11:31.560 --> 00:11:32.617
when I first got my torch out,

279
00:11:32.617 --> 00:11:34.830
and if I shine it again,

280
00:11:34.830 --> 00:11:38.743
actually I can see that I'm 72 miles from Las Vegas as well.

281
00:11:39.630 --> 00:11:42.980
Now that changes the situation quite considerably.

282
00:11:42.980 --> 00:11:46.160
If I'm 72 miles from Las Vegas,

283
00:11:46.160 --> 00:11:47.740
well that would mean I'm somewhere probably

284
00:11:47.740 --> 00:11:49.330
within this ring that we see here

285
00:11:49.330 --> 00:11:51.230
around Las Vegas.

286
00:11:51.230 --> 00:11:53.380
So that helps me quite a lot.

287
00:11:53.380 --> 00:11:55.780
And if I combine those two bits of information,

288
00:11:55.780 --> 00:11:59.240
so if I say well I'm this far from Salt Lake City

289
00:11:59.240 --> 00:12:01.280
and I'm this far from Las Vegas,

290
00:12:01.280 --> 00:12:03.750
well then in that case I can narrow down my location

291
00:12:03.750 --> 00:12:05.020
quite significantly.

292
00:12:05.020 --> 00:12:07.670
I can see that I'm just in that lit up area there.

293
00:12:07.670 --> 00:12:10.530
And I'm almost certainly not anywhere else.

294
00:12:10.530 --> 00:12:12.660
And now I know this I can actually test

295
00:12:12.660 --> 00:12:13.810
out other hypotheses.

296
00:12:13.810 --> 00:12:15.980
Could I be in Los Angeles for example?

297
00:12:15.980 --> 00:12:17.940
Well, no, I couldn't because Los Angeles

298
00:12:17.940 --> 00:12:22.110
is far more than 73 miles from Las Vegas.

299
00:12:22.110 --> 00:12:23.110
Or did I say 72?

300
00:12:23.110 --> 00:12:24.090
I'm sorry.

301
00:12:24.090 --> 00:12:28.093
And it's also more than 493 miles from Salt Lake City.

302
00:12:28.990 --> 00:12:32.670
So, how can we apply that to our DNA matches?

303
00:12:32.670 --> 00:12:34.900
Well let's say I have a look on my match list

304
00:12:34.900 --> 00:12:38.043
and I find a DNA match called Sally Lake.

305
00:12:39.210 --> 00:12:42.340
Now, the DNA testing company will give me

306
00:12:42.340 --> 00:12:44.250
estimated relationships.

307
00:12:44.250 --> 00:12:45.800
So they've told me that I share

308
00:12:46.667 --> 00:12:49.540
109.3 centimorgans DNA

309
00:12:49.540 --> 00:12:51.750
and they also give me estimated relationship.

310
00:12:51.750 --> 00:12:53.650
So they say I could be as close

311
00:12:53.650 --> 00:12:55.470
as a first cousin twice removed,

312
00:12:55.470 --> 00:12:58.440
or I could be a third cousin, once removed.

313
00:12:58.440 --> 00:13:00.880
So that gives me an indication of how far away Sally

314
00:13:00.880 --> 00:13:03.893
might be from me in terms of genealogy.

315
00:13:04.750 --> 00:13:07.680
So, if she was a third cousin, once removed,

316
00:13:07.680 --> 00:13:11.660
that would mean she's one, two, three,

317
00:13:11.660 --> 00:13:13.750
four, five, six,

318
00:13:13.750 --> 00:13:16.640
seven, eight, nine steps

319
00:13:16.640 --> 00:13:18.170
away from me.

320
00:13:18.170 --> 00:13:20.330
So about the furthest she might be likely to be

321
00:13:20.330 --> 00:13:22.710
would be nine steps away from me.

322
00:13:22.710 --> 00:13:25.770
Or, she might be a first cousin, twice removed.

323
00:13:25.770 --> 00:13:27.320
So that would be a bit closer.

324
00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:30.520
That would make her six steps away from me.

325
00:13:30.520 --> 00:13:32.043
So, broadly speaking,

326
00:13:33.420 --> 00:13:35.750
if Sally is in the middle here,

327
00:13:35.750 --> 00:13:37.350
to find out how I'm related to Sally

328
00:13:37.350 --> 00:13:40.920
I would need to go about six to nine steps away from her.

329
00:13:40.920 --> 00:13:44.320
So that green ring there indicates how far away

330
00:13:44.320 --> 00:13:48.090
from Sally I have to be in genealogical terms.

331
00:13:48.090 --> 00:13:50.950
Of course, just like when I only knew I was 493 miles

332
00:13:50.950 --> 00:13:52.410
from Salt Lake City,

333
00:13:52.410 --> 00:13:53.270
I'm a little lost here.

334
00:13:53.270 --> 00:13:55.110
I don't know in which direction I have to go.

335
00:13:55.110 --> 00:13:58.260
I don't know where within Sally's family tree

336
00:13:58.260 --> 00:13:59.220
I might fit.

337
00:13:59.220 --> 00:14:00.723
I haven't got any other clues.

338
00:14:01.810 --> 00:14:03.897
So, what shall I do?

339
00:14:03.897 --> 00:14:06.170
I'm going to review the DNA match

340
00:14:06.170 --> 00:14:09.050
and see if I can find some other clues.

341
00:14:09.050 --> 00:14:11.190
So I'm gonna click on shared matches

342
00:14:11.190 --> 00:14:13.300
within the match detail page.

343
00:14:13.300 --> 00:14:15.340
And I found another match.

344
00:14:15.340 --> 00:14:18.550
So this is someone who shares DNA with Sally,

345
00:14:18.550 --> 00:14:21.100
and they also share DNA with me.

346
00:14:21.100 --> 00:14:23.240
So Les Vegas is here.

347
00:14:23.240 --> 00:14:25.220
He is a very slightly more distant relative

348
00:14:25.220 --> 00:14:26.720
to me than Sally was.

349
00:14:26.720 --> 00:14:28.650
He could also be a first cousin, twice removed,

350
00:14:28.650 --> 00:14:30.763
but he might be a fourth cousin.

351
00:14:31.920 --> 00:14:35.180
So I guess my first question is well, Sally and Les

352
00:14:35.180 --> 00:14:38.200
both share DNA and they share DNA with me.

353
00:14:38.200 --> 00:14:40.930
So can I figure out how they connect?

354
00:14:40.930 --> 00:14:42.560
See if I can do that, then that's gonna help me

355
00:14:42.560 --> 00:14:44.990
just the same way knowing where Las Vegas

356
00:14:44.990 --> 00:14:47.960
was relative to Salt Lake City helped me.

357
00:14:47.960 --> 00:14:51.130
So, I'll talk later about ways to do this

358
00:14:51.130 --> 00:14:52.900
because of course it's central to almost

359
00:14:52.900 --> 00:14:55.120
all our DNA research is genealogy.

360
00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:56.660
You never get away from it.

361
00:14:56.660 --> 00:14:59.500
But in this case, I've been blessed by the gods,

362
00:14:59.500 --> 00:15:00.800
there's a tree there.

363
00:15:00.800 --> 00:15:02.320
And if I click on that tree,

364
00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:04.020
it actually tells me that Les

365
00:15:04.020 --> 00:15:07.860
is a third cousin to Sally on her maternal side.

366
00:15:07.860 --> 00:15:09.940
So now I know how they're related to each other.

367
00:15:09.940 --> 00:15:11.970
This is gonna help me figure out

368
00:15:11.970 --> 00:15:13.163
where I might fit in.

369
00:15:14.460 --> 00:15:16.230
So here is Sally.

370
00:15:16.230 --> 00:15:17.330
So just to recap.

371
00:15:17.330 --> 00:15:20.970
I connect to her somewhere around this green ring.

372
00:15:20.970 --> 00:15:24.240
But now I have Les and I connect to Les

373
00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:27.033
somewhere around this slightly bigger purple ring.

374
00:15:29.030 --> 00:15:31.680
So what that means is if I use both these matches together,

375
00:15:31.680 --> 00:15:33.050
I can narrow down my connection.

376
00:15:33.050 --> 00:15:34.630
Just the same way I did when I was lost

377
00:15:34.630 --> 00:15:35.640
and I didn't know where I was.

378
00:15:35.640 --> 00:15:37.590
I could narrow down where I was.

379
00:15:37.590 --> 00:15:39.360
Here where I connect to them,

380
00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:41.900
it must be in this yellow spot.

381
00:15:41.900 --> 00:15:44.090
So what that means is that the yellow area

382
00:15:44.090 --> 00:15:47.080
there represents the part of Sally and Les' tree

383
00:15:47.080 --> 00:15:49.030
where I must fit.

384
00:15:49.030 --> 00:15:50.730
And you can actually imagine superimposing

385
00:15:50.730 --> 00:15:52.450
a fan chart on top of there.

386
00:15:52.450 --> 00:15:55.200
There's a specific set of common ancestors

387
00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:56.640
that must be the common ancestors

388
00:15:56.640 --> 00:15:58.040
where I'm gonna fit as well.

389
00:15:59.920 --> 00:16:02.420
So what WATO is doing here

390
00:16:02.420 --> 00:16:05.520
is it's helping you to investigate genealogy

391
00:16:05.520 --> 00:16:06.950
versus genetics.

392
00:16:06.950 --> 00:16:10.010
And I need to credit Diahan Southard here

393
00:16:10.010 --> 00:16:13.400
because this is a piece of terminology she uses a lot.

394
00:16:13.400 --> 00:16:15.100
But it actually is really appropriate

395
00:16:15.100 --> 00:16:16.090
for "What Are the Odds?".

396
00:16:16.090 --> 00:16:17.933
What "What Are the Odds?" is doing is checking

397
00:16:17.933 --> 00:16:21.520
that the genealogy lines out with the genetics

398
00:16:21.520 --> 00:16:23.810
and helping you draw conclusions accordingly.

399
00:16:23.810 --> 00:16:26.170
So thank you Diahan for that snappy phrase

400
00:16:26.170 --> 00:16:29.080
and I hope you don't mind me borrowing it.

401
00:16:29.080 --> 00:16:31.180
Okay, so we're on to the second section

402
00:16:31.180 --> 00:16:33.070
of the webinar this evening.

403
00:16:33.070 --> 00:16:35.647
How can you use "What Are the Odds?"

404
00:16:36.690 --> 00:16:39.420
So I guess when we first built the tool,

405
00:16:39.420 --> 00:16:41.640
primarily we had in mind that

406
00:16:41.640 --> 00:16:44.130
it would be used to research unknown parentage cases.

407
00:16:44.130 --> 00:16:47.323
So if you're an adoptee looking for a missing parent,

408
00:16:48.180 --> 00:16:50.100
you could look at your batches,

409
00:16:50.100 --> 00:16:52.070
and use them within the tool.

410
00:16:52.070 --> 00:16:54.620
Essentially, you could also have a missing grandparent

411
00:16:54.620 --> 00:16:55.700
you're looking for.

412
00:16:55.700 --> 00:16:58.550
And of course, it could be a missing relative further back.

413
00:16:58.550 --> 00:16:59.383
But just bear in mind,

414
00:16:59.383 --> 00:17:02.140
those genetic signals from the mystery relative

415
00:17:02.140 --> 00:17:04.500
are gonna get weaker the further back you go.

416
00:17:04.500 --> 00:17:06.310
So it becomes harder and harder.

417
00:17:06.310 --> 00:17:08.480
But, the point at which it becomes impossible

418
00:17:08.480 --> 00:17:10.480
will actually depend on your own matches.

419
00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.770
And I have heard of people using the tool

420
00:17:12.770 --> 00:17:15.473
to identify reasonably far back grandparents.

421
00:17:16.980 --> 00:17:19.020
Also you might just have a mystery match

422
00:17:19.020 --> 00:17:20.050
that you want to investigate.

423
00:17:20.050 --> 00:17:23.910
Now in this case, it's a slightly different situation.

424
00:17:23.910 --> 00:17:25.774
You would have to use either MyHeritage

425
00:17:25.774 --> 00:17:28.490
or 23andMe, or GEDmatch,

426
00:17:28.490 --> 00:17:30.810
if you wanted to investigate their matches

427
00:17:30.810 --> 00:17:32.280
'cause those are the only sites that actually

428
00:17:32.280 --> 00:17:35.760
give you access to your match's matches.

429
00:17:35.760 --> 00:17:37.440
You could also potentially use Ancestry

430
00:17:37.440 --> 00:17:39.750
if you had a wide selection of family members

431
00:17:39.750 --> 00:17:42.040
who've tested who will match this person.

432
00:17:42.040 --> 00:17:44.860
You could try and place that match in your tree.

433
00:17:44.860 --> 00:17:47.573
So that can be an extra use of the tool.

434
00:17:48.690 --> 00:17:52.380
So what are the requirements for "What Are the Odds?"

435
00:17:52.380 --> 00:17:54.670
first of all, you need a research question.

436
00:17:54.670 --> 00:17:57.070
You need to know what it is you're trying to do.

437
00:17:57.070 --> 00:18:00.860
So, a common one might be who is my biological father?

438
00:18:00.860 --> 00:18:01.820
Another might be you know,

439
00:18:01.820 --> 00:18:04.253
who is my mystery maternal grandmother?

440
00:18:06.084 --> 00:18:08.410
The next thing you need is shared centimorgan amounts

441
00:18:08.410 --> 00:18:11.660
for a group of matches from your match list.

442
00:18:11.660 --> 00:18:13.870
Now, of course it can't just be any matches.

443
00:18:13.870 --> 00:18:16.180
It needs to be matches who are relevant

444
00:18:16.180 --> 00:18:17.980
to this mystery relative.

445
00:18:17.980 --> 00:18:21.820
So, that of course in itself can be tricky.

446
00:18:21.820 --> 00:18:23.690
And then I'll talk about some strategies for figuring

447
00:18:23.690 --> 00:18:25.240
out who those people are later.

448
00:18:26.140 --> 00:18:28.660
And finally, the real killer here

449
00:18:28.660 --> 00:18:31.160
is you have to have knowledge of how these matches

450
00:18:31.160 --> 00:18:32.650
are related to each other.

451
00:18:32.650 --> 00:18:35.530
You have to be able to put them together into a tree.

452
00:18:35.530 --> 00:18:36.630
If you can do that,

453
00:18:36.630 --> 00:18:38.560
then you can use "What Are the Odds?".

454
00:18:39.510 --> 00:18:41.327
So yeah, I can just say,

455
00:18:41.327 --> 00:18:42.670
"Yeah, just put them together in a tree."

456
00:18:42.670 --> 00:18:43.560
That sounds easy doesn't it?

457
00:18:43.560 --> 00:18:45.190
Obviously it's not easy

458
00:18:45.190 --> 00:18:47.130
and I'm not trying to pretend for a moment

459
00:18:47.130 --> 00:18:48.330
that it is easy.

460
00:18:48.330 --> 00:18:50.480
However, if you use all available clues

461
00:18:50.480 --> 00:18:52.430
and you have got some chance,

462
00:18:52.430 --> 00:18:55.590
so using the amount of DNA you share with someone

463
00:18:55.590 --> 00:18:56.940
can be a very helpful way of figuring out

464
00:18:56.940 --> 00:18:59.350
where the potential relationships might be

465
00:18:59.350 --> 00:19:01.610
so you can start to figure out

466
00:19:01.610 --> 00:19:05.300
whereabouts within their trees they might connect.

467
00:19:05.300 --> 00:19:07.150
So I'm looking there to the shared centimorgan tool,

468
00:19:07.150 --> 00:19:09.320
which I'll talk about later.

469
00:19:09.320 --> 00:19:11.460
Shared matches are completely key

470
00:19:11.460 --> 00:19:12.660
so I've gone to the trouble here

471
00:19:12.660 --> 00:19:14.770
of just clarifying how you get to share

472
00:19:14.770 --> 00:19:17.080
the matches on the different websites.

473
00:19:17.080 --> 00:19:19.990
On MyHeritage, they're called Shared DNA Matches.

474
00:19:19.990 --> 00:19:22.140
Ancestry, they're called Shared Matches.

475
00:19:22.140 --> 00:19:24.120
Within 23andMe, they've slightly hidden them now.

476
00:19:24.120 --> 00:19:27.290
They're hidden behind the button on the match detail page.

477
00:19:27.290 --> 00:19:30.033
And that button says View Relatives in Common.

478
00:19:30.890 --> 00:19:32.300
Within Family Tree DNA,

479
00:19:32.300 --> 00:19:34.340
it says In Common With.

480
00:19:34.340 --> 00:19:37.410
And on GEDmatch, you need to use the report,

481
00:19:37.410 --> 00:19:41.323
People who match both, or 1 of 2 kits.

482
00:19:42.190 --> 00:19:44.790
So these shared matches can be key

483
00:19:44.790 --> 00:19:47.410
in terms of figuring out who shares DNA with each other

484
00:19:47.410 --> 00:19:48.243
and then who therefore,

485
00:19:48.243 --> 00:19:50.790
you may be able to start to gather clues for

486
00:19:50.790 --> 00:19:52.083
and place in the tree.

487
00:19:53.150 --> 00:19:55.080
Obviously the trees themselves are a gift

488
00:19:55.080 --> 00:19:56.750
if they exist.

489
00:19:56.750 --> 00:19:58.530
And sometimes of course they're not terribly helpful.

490
00:19:58.530 --> 00:20:00.520
But even if you just have a couple of names,

491
00:20:00.520 --> 00:20:02.520
that can be something to hang it on.

492
00:20:02.520 --> 00:20:04.190
And then there's an extra gift.

493
00:20:04.190 --> 00:20:05.350
There are automated tools,

494
00:20:05.350 --> 00:20:07.820
which will actually connect you to the tree for you,

495
00:20:07.820 --> 00:20:09.030
if you're very lucky.

496
00:20:09.030 --> 00:20:12.740
So, MyHeritage has the theories of family relativity

497
00:20:12.740 --> 00:20:14.940
and Ancestry have ThruLines,

498
00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:16.290
which will do that for you.

499
00:20:17.230 --> 00:20:19.430
Ages, names, and places obviously

500
00:20:19.430 --> 00:20:20.650
are underestimated.

501
00:20:20.650 --> 00:20:22.120
Some people will say well there's no trees,

502
00:20:22.120 --> 00:20:24.050
so what can I do?

503
00:20:24.050 --> 00:20:26.600
Obviously any clue you have,

504
00:20:26.600 --> 00:20:29.660
the match's name, all this stuff is completely relevant

505
00:20:29.660 --> 00:20:32.510
and you can start going onto your search engine of choice

506
00:20:32.510 --> 00:20:36.150
and researching people you never know what you might find.

507
00:20:36.150 --> 00:20:39.390
Automated tools can also help you to gather information.

508
00:20:39.390 --> 00:20:43.150
So I mentioned Ancestry and MyHeritage

509
00:20:43.150 --> 00:20:45.511
having those tools that you can place in the trees.

510
00:20:45.511 --> 00:20:48.281
MyHeritage also has AutoClusters.

511
00:20:48.281 --> 00:20:50.080
And I've just picked a couple of other tools here.

512
00:20:50.080 --> 00:20:51.730
We've got DNAGEDcom, which helps you

513
00:20:51.730 --> 00:20:54.860
to run cluster and analyze your matches.

514
00:20:54.860 --> 00:20:56.168
And GeneticAffairs.

515
00:20:56.168 --> 00:20:57.530
There are many other tools out there

516
00:20:57.530 --> 00:20:59.500
that can potentially help you.

517
00:20:59.500 --> 00:21:02.020
And I would just say I wouldn't see this as a chore.

518
00:21:02.020 --> 00:21:03.560
I mean, if you're a genealogist,

519
00:21:03.560 --> 00:21:04.740
and you're motivated,

520
00:21:04.740 --> 00:21:07.440
'cause this is gonna help you solve your mystery.

521
00:21:07.440 --> 00:21:08.470
You shouldn't feel like it's a chore.

522
00:21:08.470 --> 00:21:10.460
You should really feel empowered

523
00:21:10.460 --> 00:21:11.910
and able to do this.

524
00:21:11.910 --> 00:21:15.130
The message being that you can do other people's genealogy.

525
00:21:15.130 --> 00:21:16.430
In fact, not only can you do it,

526
00:21:16.430 --> 00:21:17.650
you're probably gonna have to do it.

527
00:21:17.650 --> 00:21:20.400
So it's probably time to roll your sleeves up

528
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:21.940
and get on with it.

529
00:21:21.940 --> 00:21:22.960
I personally love it.

530
00:21:22.960 --> 00:21:24.000
I do it all the time.

531
00:21:24.000 --> 00:21:25.460
Every day, even when I was supposed to be working

532
00:21:25.460 --> 00:21:26.420
on other things,

533
00:21:26.420 --> 00:21:28.620
I'm always researching other people's trees.

534
00:21:29.640 --> 00:21:33.240
Okay, so a glossary of terms used in "What Are the Odds?"

535
00:21:33.240 --> 00:21:34.600
The target.

536
00:21:34.600 --> 00:21:36.510
The target is the person that you are trying

537
00:21:36.510 --> 00:21:38.060
to place in the tree.

538
00:21:38.060 --> 00:21:40.370
And I'll give a practical example of this shortly to

539
00:21:40.370 --> 00:21:43.540
kind of reiterate what I'm saying here.

540
00:21:43.540 --> 00:21:44.700
But the target is the person who's matches

541
00:21:44.700 --> 00:21:47.880
you were using you were trying to place in the tree.

542
00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:49.330
A hypothesis.

543
00:21:49.330 --> 00:21:51.860
A hypothesis is a position in the tree

544
00:21:51.860 --> 00:21:54.243
where you believe that the target might fit.

545
00:21:55.770 --> 00:21:57.310
And then the score.

546
00:21:57.310 --> 00:22:00.380
The score indicates how one hypothesis ranks

547
00:22:00.380 --> 00:22:01.710
against the others.

548
00:22:01.710 --> 00:22:04.010
Now the score is an odds ratio.

549
00:22:04.010 --> 00:22:05.740
Which can be extremely confusing

550
00:22:05.740 --> 00:22:07.000
and at times counterintuitive.

551
00:22:07.000 --> 00:22:10.690
So, I will be touching on this topic

552
00:22:10.690 --> 00:22:12.910
in a lot more detail later in the presentation.

553
00:22:12.910 --> 00:22:15.830
But I just want to introduce to you what that is.

554
00:22:15.830 --> 00:22:19.120
Now, all this can hilariously confusing.

555
00:22:19.120 --> 00:22:21.870
A lot of people I think stumble into this tool.

556
00:22:21.870 --> 00:22:23.280
They heard great things about it

557
00:22:23.280 --> 00:22:25.140
and for whatever reason,

558
00:22:25.140 --> 00:22:26.730
they can't their head around it.

559
00:22:26.730 --> 00:22:29.173
And they feel like what am I doing wrong?

560
00:22:29.173 --> 00:22:31.460
This is a disaster.

561
00:22:31.460 --> 00:22:34.090
Obviously they're probably not doing anything wrong at all.

562
00:22:34.090 --> 00:22:35.987
Some tips for success are

563
00:22:35.987 --> 00:22:38.563
have a really, really clear research question.

564
00:22:39.470 --> 00:22:41.090
And what I actually do in the tool

565
00:22:41.090 --> 00:22:42.750
is I print the research question out

566
00:22:42.750 --> 00:22:44.830
at the top so I have a place

567
00:22:44.830 --> 00:22:46.130
for you to enter it.

568
00:22:46.130 --> 00:22:47.470
And I don't know about you,

569
00:22:47.470 --> 00:22:48.303
but I'm often working

570
00:22:48.303 --> 00:22:50.010
on many different genealogical problems

571
00:22:50.010 --> 00:22:51.050
at one time.

572
00:22:51.050 --> 00:22:54.830
So I like to have the current problem right at hand.

573
00:22:54.830 --> 00:22:56.080
And then finally, obviously just make sure

574
00:22:56.080 --> 00:22:58.110
you understand what information is needed.

575
00:22:58.110 --> 00:22:59.813
If you haven't got significant enough matches

576
00:22:59.813 --> 00:23:01.940
that you're able to place them in a tree,

577
00:23:01.940 --> 00:23:03.700
then, I mean, by all means have a play.

578
00:23:03.700 --> 00:23:05.320
But you're not necessarily gonna get

579
00:23:05.320 --> 00:23:06.620
the results that you want.

580
00:23:08.180 --> 00:23:09.950
Okay, so basic operations.

581
00:23:09.950 --> 00:23:13.630
This is the hands on website part of the talk.

582
00:23:13.630 --> 00:23:17.100
So if you want to get a name,

583
00:23:17.100 --> 00:23:19.450
you can click on any name in the tree.

584
00:23:19.450 --> 00:23:20.700
And you can edit it in place.

585
00:23:20.700 --> 00:23:23.330
So here I've clicked on Lillian Smithson's name.

586
00:23:23.330 --> 00:23:24.710
I'm gonna edit it because really she's

587
00:23:24.710 --> 00:23:26.250
called Lillian Smith.

588
00:23:26.250 --> 00:23:28.410
And I can then click enter or I can,

589
00:23:28.410 --> 00:23:30.410
sorry I can hit enter or I can click anywhere else

590
00:23:30.410 --> 00:23:32.963
on the screen and that will save that name for you.

591
00:23:34.340 --> 00:23:37.340
I can hover over any node in the tree.

592
00:23:37.340 --> 00:23:39.730
And that's where all the magic happens.

593
00:23:39.730 --> 00:23:40.870
That's where all the options are.

594
00:23:40.870 --> 00:23:41.830
And so here are.

595
00:23:41.830 --> 00:23:43.890
I'll just click on the option that's required.

596
00:23:43.890 --> 00:23:46.363
So if I click add child for example,

597
00:23:47.360 --> 00:23:49.253
then Lillian has a child.

598
00:23:50.198 --> 00:23:51.513
But if I click delete,

599
00:23:52.570 --> 00:23:54.220
well because Lillian has a child node,

600
00:23:54.220 --> 00:23:56.490
it's gonna ask me to confirm that deletion.

601
00:23:56.490 --> 00:23:57.950
And once I confirmed it,

602
00:23:57.950 --> 00:23:59.490
Lillian's gone.

603
00:23:59.490 --> 00:24:00.980
But Lillian's magically back again

604
00:24:00.980 --> 00:24:03.180
because we're gonna enter the match centimorgans.

605
00:24:03.180 --> 00:24:06.180
So if I shared DNA with Lillian,

606
00:24:06.180 --> 00:24:08.490
I'm gonna click this button to make her a match.

607
00:24:08.490 --> 00:24:10.040
I'm gonna enter the amount of DNA

608
00:24:10.040 --> 00:24:12.020
that I share with her in the box there

609
00:24:12.020 --> 00:24:13.720
and I'm gonna hit save.

610
00:24:13.720 --> 00:24:15.254
And Lillian is now a match.

611
00:24:15.254 --> 00:24:17.054
And this is what a match looks like.

612
00:24:18.401 --> 00:24:22.307
I am going to look now at defining half relationships.

613
00:24:22.307 --> 00:24:24.150
So this is obviously a really, really important thing to do.

614
00:24:24.150 --> 00:24:25.350
If you are hypothesizing

615
00:24:25.350 --> 00:24:27.890
about where you might fit into a tree,

616
00:24:27.890 --> 00:24:30.770
it's reasonably likely that someone along the line

617
00:24:30.770 --> 00:24:32.990
might actually be the product

618
00:24:32.990 --> 00:24:36.450
of a different parent to the other siblings.

619
00:24:36.450 --> 00:24:38.220
So, within "What Are the Odds?"

620
00:24:38.220 --> 00:24:40.170
what you do is you click this button,

621
00:24:40.170 --> 00:24:42.320
define half relationships.

622
00:24:42.320 --> 00:24:44.130
That will bring up all of the siblings

623
00:24:44.130 --> 00:24:45.450
within that family.

624
00:24:45.450 --> 00:24:47.790
And if I check the box there,

625
00:24:47.790 --> 00:24:51.230
then the system will know that that's,

626
00:24:51.230 --> 00:24:53.090
that I am a half sibling to them.

627
00:24:53.090 --> 00:24:55.140
And you can see that Lillian is displayed

628
00:24:55.140 --> 00:24:57.870
with a yellow dotted line

629
00:24:57.870 --> 00:25:00.580
and the other siblings who are full siblings to each other,

630
00:25:00.580 --> 00:25:01.530
they have a pink line.

631
00:25:01.530 --> 00:25:03.450
And you can have unlimited numbers of half siblings

632
00:25:03.450 --> 00:25:04.283
within a family.

633
00:25:04.283 --> 00:25:06.850
I think I've seen six different sets once,

634
00:25:06.850 --> 00:25:07.683
just amazing.

635
00:25:08.810 --> 00:25:10.580
Okay, and then use this hypothesis.

636
00:25:10.580 --> 00:25:11.860
So this is a really important one

637
00:25:11.860 --> 00:25:15.360
to explain in detail I think.

638
00:25:15.360 --> 00:25:17.260
So if you click that one, any node,

639
00:25:17.260 --> 00:25:19.550
then it's gonna add them as a hypothesis.

640
00:25:19.550 --> 00:25:21.750
So it's saying I think that the target

641
00:25:21.750 --> 00:25:24.530
might fit at this space in a tree.

642
00:25:24.530 --> 00:25:26.140
So the target in this case,

643
00:25:26.140 --> 00:25:27.270
her name is Karen.

644
00:25:27.270 --> 00:25:29.470
And that's always the test taker.

645
00:25:29.470 --> 00:25:31.740
So even if I'm looking for someone else,

646
00:25:31.740 --> 00:25:33.690
it's Karen's DNA matches I'm using,

647
00:25:33.690 --> 00:25:35.420
then Karen is the target.

648
00:25:35.420 --> 00:25:38.270
And it's her that I need to place in the tree.

649
00:25:38.270 --> 00:25:40.140
So where could she fit into this tree?

650
00:25:40.140 --> 00:25:42.000
Well, so if I'm just looking for

651
00:25:42.000 --> 00:25:44.070
to place Karen somewhere,

652
00:25:44.070 --> 00:25:46.050
I could try putting her in here.

653
00:25:46.050 --> 00:25:47.870
So, if my research question is

654
00:25:47.870 --> 00:25:49.200
who was Karen's father?

655
00:25:49.200 --> 00:25:50.950
I could say well maybe it was Christopher.

656
00:25:50.950 --> 00:25:53.740
Or perhaps it was a son of Christopher.

657
00:25:53.740 --> 00:25:55.440
So that's what I'm exploring here.

658
00:25:55.440 --> 00:25:58.200
Now I might have a different research question.

659
00:25:58.200 --> 00:26:01.220
Let's just say I'm looking for Karen's grandfather.

660
00:26:01.220 --> 00:26:03.730
So in that case I know who Karen's father is.

661
00:26:03.730 --> 00:26:06.960
I don't need to hypothesize about where he is.

662
00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:10.340
So, in that case, I actually need to repeat the nodes.

663
00:26:10.340 --> 00:26:13.090
So I have to add Karen's father twice.

664
00:26:13.090 --> 00:26:15.050
Here I've added Karen's father once

665
00:26:15.050 --> 00:26:17.540
as a half sibling to Darcey.

666
00:26:17.540 --> 00:26:20.430
And I've also added him once as Christopher's son.

667
00:26:20.430 --> 00:26:23.606
So yeah, from time to time you have to repeat nodes.

668
00:26:23.606 --> 00:26:24.510
I just thought I'd make a note of that

669
00:26:24.510 --> 00:26:26.963
'cause I know that can be confusing to people.

670
00:26:28.500 --> 00:26:30.260
One important thing to bear in mind,

671
00:26:30.260 --> 00:26:32.110
I wanted to make this tool as accessible

672
00:26:32.110 --> 00:26:33.560
to everyone as possible.

673
00:26:33.560 --> 00:26:35.240
So you actually don't have to be logged in

674
00:26:35.240 --> 00:26:36.150
to use it.

675
00:26:36.150 --> 00:26:38.990
So if you just go to the tool without saving,

676
00:26:38.990 --> 00:26:39.980
then you'll see this warning

677
00:26:39.980 --> 00:26:40.813
at the top of the screen.

678
00:26:40.813 --> 00:26:42.370
And that's just telling you

679
00:26:42.370 --> 00:26:44.410
you haven't actually saved this to your account yet.

680
00:26:44.410 --> 00:26:46.027
I save it in the browser so it will be there

681
00:26:46.027 --> 00:26:48.740
if you come back to that same browser.

682
00:26:48.740 --> 00:26:50.160
However, if it's something you're seriously

683
00:26:50.160 --> 00:26:52.160
working on, you're gonna want to save it to your account.

684
00:26:52.160 --> 00:26:54.770
So if you just have a free DNA Painter account,

685
00:26:54.770 --> 00:26:56.640
you log in and you save it.

686
00:26:56.640 --> 00:26:58.610
Then that tree will be accessible to you

687
00:26:58.610 --> 00:27:00.130
separately later.

688
00:27:00.130 --> 00:27:01.270
And where will it be accessible?

689
00:27:01.270 --> 00:27:03.150
Well, on the home page,

690
00:27:03.150 --> 00:27:05.190
once you log in you see these three tabs

691
00:27:05.190 --> 00:27:06.310
in DNA Painter at the moment.

692
00:27:06.310 --> 00:27:09.840
So, the middle tab says TOOLS AND WATO.

693
00:27:09.840 --> 00:27:11.370
And there's a table of all

694
00:27:11.370 --> 00:27:13.570
of your "What Are the Odds?" trees there.

695
00:27:13.570 --> 00:27:15.680
Which you can filter and you can sort

696
00:27:15.680 --> 00:27:17.770
and also from within a tree,

697
00:27:17.770 --> 00:27:20.400
you can switch at any point to a different tree

698
00:27:20.400 --> 00:27:22.123
which is in your account.

699
00:27:23.760 --> 00:27:25.020
Now share your tree.

700
00:27:25.020 --> 00:27:27.400
Another very, very important function

701
00:27:27.400 --> 00:27:28.750
and I guess you'll learn this

702
00:27:28.750 --> 00:27:31.590
when you do your first very difficult case.

703
00:27:31.590 --> 00:27:33.120
You quite often are gonna want input

704
00:27:33.120 --> 00:27:34.620
from other people.

705
00:27:34.620 --> 00:27:36.500
So, if you check this box.

706
00:27:36.500 --> 00:27:38.250
Obviously by default everything is private.

707
00:27:38.250 --> 00:27:39.960
No one is gonna be able to view it

708
00:27:39.960 --> 00:27:41.610
unless they're either on your computer

709
00:27:41.610 --> 00:27:42.997
or logged in as you.

710
00:27:42.997 --> 00:27:44.567
But if you check this button,

711
00:27:44.567 --> 00:27:46.303
sorry, if you check this box,

712
00:27:47.160 --> 00:27:48.610
then there'll be a link.

713
00:27:48.610 --> 00:27:49.770
And anyone who knows that link

714
00:27:49.770 --> 00:27:53.500
will then be able to see the tree.

715
00:27:53.500 --> 00:27:55.920
You can shorten names for privacy if you'd like to

716
00:27:55.920 --> 00:27:58.133
by checking the extra button above there.

717
00:28:00.150 --> 00:28:02.400
Okay, so we're on to the case studies.

718
00:28:02.400 --> 00:28:04.600
So here I'm gonna take you step by step

719
00:28:04.600 --> 00:28:07.560
through a couple of cases that I worked on.

720
00:28:07.560 --> 00:28:10.270
And you can see I guess warts and all

721
00:28:10.270 --> 00:28:12.883
what the tool does and doesn't do for you.

722
00:28:14.070 --> 00:28:16.430
So, without further ado,

723
00:28:16.430 --> 00:28:18.890
the first time I ever used the tool amazingly

724
00:28:18.890 --> 00:28:22.183
was probably nine months or so after I built it.

725
00:28:22.183 --> 00:28:23.340
That was the first opportunity that I had

726
00:28:23.340 --> 00:28:26.083
to really get my teeth into a case myself.

727
00:28:26.980 --> 00:28:29.298
My father in law got a new match.

728
00:28:29.298 --> 00:28:30.913
And that's this guy called Brian.

729
00:28:31.790 --> 00:28:33.900
If you're English you may understand this.

730
00:28:33.900 --> 00:28:34.733
For me, when I saw this,

731
00:28:34.733 --> 00:28:36.974
109 centimorgan match,

732
00:28:36.974 --> 00:28:38.440
I was really excited.

733
00:28:38.440 --> 00:28:40.560
I was like, wow we've got this massive match.

734
00:28:40.560 --> 00:28:41.900
I've since seen a match list

735
00:28:41.900 --> 00:28:43.070
for some of my American friends

736
00:28:43.070 --> 00:28:45.160
and they probably have hundreds of matches like this.

737
00:28:45.160 --> 00:28:47.690
But for us, this is pretty exciting.

738
00:28:47.690 --> 00:28:49.170
So I was like, well who is this guy?

739
00:28:49.170 --> 00:28:50.880
Who could he be?

740
00:28:50.880 --> 00:28:52.470
Obviously I'm a DNA geek,

741
00:28:52.470 --> 00:28:53.730
and a genealogy geek.

742
00:28:53.730 --> 00:28:54.890
I just wanted to roll my sleeves up

743
00:28:54.890 --> 00:28:56.490
and figure out who he was.

744
00:28:56.490 --> 00:28:58.710
So, I thought well let's just use this tool I built.

745
00:28:58.710 --> 00:29:01.130
So I formulated my research question,

746
00:29:01.130 --> 00:29:02.530
which is a very simple one.

747
00:29:02.530 --> 00:29:06.048
How does Brian fit into John's tree?

748
00:29:06.048 --> 00:29:07.220
'Cause at this point obviously I know

749
00:29:07.220 --> 00:29:08.290
my father in law's tree,

750
00:29:08.290 --> 00:29:10.320
but I've got no idea who Brian is.

751
00:29:10.320 --> 00:29:12.013
So Brian is the target.

752
00:29:13.720 --> 00:29:15.430
And there's my research question

753
00:29:15.430 --> 00:29:17.420
big just to make it really clear.

754
00:29:17.420 --> 00:29:20.000
So, the first thing I did was I identified

755
00:29:20.000 --> 00:29:21.480
the branch of John's tree

756
00:29:21.480 --> 00:29:23.040
that Brian must be on.

757
00:29:23.040 --> 00:29:24.990
And I did this by looking at shared matches.

758
00:29:24.990 --> 00:29:27.270
So, within the shared matches

759
00:29:27.270 --> 00:29:28.150
there were some other matches

760
00:29:28.150 --> 00:29:30.040
who I'd already placed definitely

761
00:29:30.040 --> 00:29:33.770
as descendants of Isaac Roberts and Mary Dixon.

762
00:29:33.770 --> 00:29:36.390
So I kind of knew where Brian must fit

763
00:29:36.390 --> 00:29:38.980
in terms of the broad branch.

764
00:29:38.980 --> 00:29:41.598
So at this point I enter the centimorgans shared

765
00:29:41.598 --> 00:29:43.165
just like I just showed you.

766
00:29:43.165 --> 00:29:44.500
Enter my 109.

767
00:29:44.500 --> 00:29:48.913
And now John is in there as a match for Brian.

768
00:29:50.180 --> 00:29:52.500
So at this point I'm just gonna talk about

769
00:29:52.500 --> 00:29:53.790
relationship probabilities.

770
00:29:53.790 --> 00:29:55.770
We saw earlier that the testing companies

771
00:29:55.770 --> 00:29:58.766
do tell you roughly what they,

772
00:29:58.766 --> 00:30:00.497
what relationship they think a match might be to you.

773
00:30:00.497 --> 00:30:03.340
And they told me Brian is a third to fourth cousin.

774
00:30:03.340 --> 00:30:05.180
If I go to the shared centimorgan tool,

775
00:30:05.180 --> 00:30:07.550
which you can find within the tool section

776
00:30:07.550 --> 00:30:08.630
at DNA Painter,

777
00:30:08.630 --> 00:30:10.540
it actually shows me a plethora

778
00:30:10.540 --> 00:30:11.790
of different relationships here

779
00:30:11.790 --> 00:30:14.910
that are possible for that relationship.

780
00:30:14.910 --> 00:30:16.120
That can be quite overwhelming.

781
00:30:16.120 --> 00:30:18.150
But of course, not all of these relationships

782
00:30:18.150 --> 00:30:19.640
are equally likely.

783
00:30:19.640 --> 00:30:21.440
If I look at the probabilities,

784
00:30:21.440 --> 00:30:22.970
I can see fourth cousin is in there,

785
00:30:22.970 --> 00:30:24.410
but it's way down the bottom.

786
00:30:24.410 --> 00:30:26.170
In terms of the most likely probabilities,

787
00:30:26.170 --> 00:30:27.510
they're all a little bit closer

788
00:30:27.510 --> 00:30:29.650
so I probably don't need to go back

789
00:30:29.650 --> 00:30:30.740
too many generations.

790
00:30:30.740 --> 00:30:32.830
I can probably go back three or four generations

791
00:30:32.830 --> 00:30:37.120
without having to go way back to my third,

792
00:30:37.120 --> 00:30:38.993
John's third great grandparent level.

793
00:30:39.920 --> 00:30:41.720
So I'm gonna try just entering Brian

794
00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:43.130
in these different places in the tree.

795
00:30:43.130 --> 00:30:45.000
Now, I'm adding hypotheses.

796
00:30:45.000 --> 00:30:46.590
I've written Brian's name here just to make

797
00:30:46.590 --> 00:30:47.710
that really, really clear

798
00:30:47.710 --> 00:30:49.180
that it's Brian I'm hypothesizing

799
00:30:49.180 --> 00:30:50.810
about his position in the tree.

800
00:30:50.810 --> 00:30:52.920
So I wonder could he be a second cousin?

801
00:30:52.920 --> 00:30:54.840
Could he be a second cousin, once removed?

802
00:30:54.840 --> 00:30:57.170
So one generation younger than John.

803
00:30:57.170 --> 00:31:00.270
Or perhaps, could he be a third cousin?

804
00:31:00.270 --> 00:31:02.440
So, as soon as I put them in,

805
00:31:02.440 --> 00:31:05.970
the scores are applied by "What Are the Odds?".

806
00:31:05.970 --> 00:31:08.170
And, the scores tell me immediately

807
00:31:08.170 --> 00:31:10.250
that a second cousin, once removed

808
00:31:10.250 --> 00:31:12.420
is the most likely of those.

809
00:31:12.420 --> 00:31:15.580
A third cousin and a second cousin are also possible.

810
00:31:15.580 --> 00:31:18.720
But to be honest, none of these is massively

811
00:31:18.720 --> 00:31:20.260
more likely than any others.

812
00:31:20.260 --> 00:31:22.100
So I don't have any strong evidence

813
00:31:22.100 --> 00:31:23.200
to really go on there.

814
00:31:24.170 --> 00:31:27.000
So why not actually go back to basics

815
00:31:27.000 --> 00:31:28.370
and talk to someone?

816
00:31:28.370 --> 00:31:30.510
So I wrote to Brian and I said

817
00:31:30.510 --> 00:31:32.150
you know it looks like you're a second

818
00:31:32.150 --> 00:31:33.473
or third cousin match.

819
00:31:34.310 --> 00:31:37.100
Here's roughly where I think he might belong.

820
00:31:37.100 --> 00:31:39.380
I wonder if you could give me any information.

821
00:31:39.380 --> 00:31:41.340
And Brian wrote back immediately,

822
00:31:41.340 --> 00:31:43.280
very shortly, and he says,

823
00:31:43.280 --> 00:31:46.382
well actually I don't know who my father was at all.

824
00:31:46.382 --> 00:31:47.646
And would you be able to help me?

825
00:31:47.646 --> 00:31:48.500
Of course he picked the right person

826
00:31:48.500 --> 00:31:50.460
because I was absolutely champing at the bit

827
00:31:50.460 --> 00:31:52.660
to help someone with this kind of stuff.

828
00:31:52.660 --> 00:31:55.260
So I immediately had a new research question.

829
00:31:55.260 --> 00:31:57.710
And that research question was

830
00:31:57.710 --> 00:32:00.593
who was the father of Brian, born 1954?

831
00:32:00.593 --> 00:32:01.490
And it was obviously a very important

832
00:32:01.490 --> 00:32:03.450
for me to know when Brian was born

833
00:32:03.450 --> 00:32:05.050
and he was able to tell me that.

834
00:32:06.020 --> 00:32:08.430
So, the other thing Brian did immediately

835
00:32:08.430 --> 00:32:11.510
was give me access to his matches

836
00:32:11.510 --> 00:32:13.570
because Brian was very new to this.

837
00:32:13.570 --> 00:32:16.510
And the eagle eye amongst you might actually see

838
00:32:16.510 --> 00:32:19.790
that Brian has an absolute whopper of a match here.

839
00:32:19.790 --> 00:32:24.490
So Brian matches a man called Ralph at 870 centimorgans.

840
00:32:24.490 --> 00:32:26.970
So if you've done any work with DNA at all,

841
00:32:26.970 --> 00:32:30.140
you will realize that that is a pretty close match.

842
00:32:30.140 --> 00:32:32.280
So, I was kind of excited

843
00:32:33.670 --> 00:32:35.210
'cause I could sort of see the end in sight

844
00:32:35.210 --> 00:32:38.080
if you like before I even started with this one.

845
00:32:38.080 --> 00:32:41.940
So let's just review what 870 centimorgans means.

846
00:32:41.940 --> 00:32:44.610
So we have a 97% chance that it's one

847
00:32:44.610 --> 00:32:46.600
of these relationships at the top.

848
00:32:46.600 --> 00:32:49.190
And then a 3% chance this is one of these relationships

849
00:32:49.190 --> 00:32:50.023
at the bottom.

850
00:32:50.023 --> 00:32:53.270
Now, this man Ralph, who he matches,

851
00:32:53.270 --> 00:32:55.150
I don't know how old he is.

852
00:32:55.150 --> 00:32:56.470
But I have a picture of him.

853
00:32:56.470 --> 00:32:58.650
So I think I can assume he probably

854
00:32:58.650 --> 00:33:02.290
isn't a great grandparent or a great niece or nephew.

855
00:33:02.290 --> 00:33:03.623
Or a great aunt or uncle.

856
00:33:04.470 --> 00:33:07.500
He's almost certainly a half uncle

857
00:33:07.500 --> 00:33:09.480
or a first cousin.

858
00:33:09.480 --> 00:33:11.430
It seems very likely to me.

859
00:33:11.430 --> 00:33:14.600
So the first thing for you to do is investigate,

860
00:33:14.600 --> 00:33:16.860
could Ralph actually be Brian's half uncle?

861
00:33:16.860 --> 00:33:19.260
As we can see, in terms of the genetics

862
00:33:19.260 --> 00:33:22.250
matching the genealogy, yes, he could be.

863
00:33:22.250 --> 00:33:25.870
870 centimorgans is a reasonable amount of DNA

864
00:33:25.870 --> 00:33:30.420
for a half uncle, half nephew relationship.

865
00:33:30.420 --> 00:33:33.620
However, since Brian was born in 1954,

866
00:33:33.620 --> 00:33:36.893
it is not genealogically possible for that to be the case.

867
00:33:37.760 --> 00:33:41.670
So Stephen, Ralph's father, was born in 1933.

868
00:33:41.670 --> 00:33:44.020
So that's actually too late for Ralph

869
00:33:44.020 --> 00:33:46.700
to have a half sibling who could possibly have been

870
00:33:46.700 --> 00:33:48.220
Brian's father.

871
00:33:48.220 --> 00:33:49.350
So I can rule that

872
00:33:49.350 --> 00:33:50.980
even though "What Are the Odds?" is saying

873
00:33:50.980 --> 00:33:52.240
that's feasible.

874
00:33:52.240 --> 00:33:54.140
I can rule that out because I know

875
00:33:54.140 --> 00:33:56.093
that it's not genealogically possible.

876
00:33:57.080 --> 00:34:01.980
So a first cousin and a first cousin, once removed, do fit.

877
00:34:01.980 --> 00:34:04.483
And then, I can try some more as well.

878
00:34:04.483 --> 00:34:06.800
I just, to show you how the tool works,

879
00:34:06.800 --> 00:34:09.400
I've tried adding a hypothesis that Brian

880
00:34:09.400 --> 00:34:11.080
is Ralph's son, which you can see

881
00:34:11.080 --> 00:34:13.340
I've got a red score of zero.

882
00:34:13.340 --> 00:34:14.740
Meaning that it's ruled out.

883
00:34:16.090 --> 00:34:18.530
So let's have a look at how the scores are calculated

884
00:34:18.530 --> 00:34:20.930
and what is actually going on here.

885
00:34:20.930 --> 00:34:23.850
So, "What Are the Odds?" is taking every match

886
00:34:23.850 --> 00:34:25.630
that I've put into the tree.

887
00:34:25.630 --> 00:34:29.050
It's calculating the relationship between that match

888
00:34:29.050 --> 00:34:33.010
and the place in the tree where we've made the hypothesis.

889
00:34:33.010 --> 00:34:35.342
So we can see that for example,

890
00:34:35.342 --> 00:34:39.900
for John, he's a second cousin, twice removed

891
00:34:39.900 --> 00:34:41.360
to hypothesis one.

892
00:34:41.360 --> 00:34:42.610
A second cousin, once removed,

893
00:34:42.610 --> 00:34:44.680
to hypothesis two for example.

894
00:34:44.680 --> 00:34:45.780
And if we move on to Ralph,

895
00:34:45.780 --> 00:34:47.300
we can see that for hypothesis one,

896
00:34:47.300 --> 00:34:48.560
he would be a parent.

897
00:34:48.560 --> 00:34:51.770
So we see we have a red 0.00% there

898
00:34:51.770 --> 00:34:54.150
saying that that's not possible.

899
00:34:54.150 --> 00:34:55.780
And we can see that if I have hypothesis two,

900
00:34:55.780 --> 00:34:56.690
he's a first cousin,

901
00:34:56.690 --> 00:34:59.203
which has a 97% probability.

902
00:35:00.804 --> 00:35:02.300
And then we can see that for the other hypotheses,

903
00:35:02.300 --> 00:35:03.970
it's just about possible,

904
00:35:03.970 --> 00:35:05.370
but it's actually very unlikely

905
00:35:05.370 --> 00:35:08.223
and gets a 2.64% chance.

906
00:35:09.200 --> 00:35:10.033
And so is that,

907
00:35:10.033 --> 00:35:13.420
which is actually pushing the overall odds ratio down

908
00:35:13.420 --> 00:35:15.500
and boosting hypothesis two

909
00:35:15.500 --> 00:35:17.170
to a score of 38.

910
00:35:17.170 --> 00:35:19.740
So what that means is that hypothesis two

911
00:35:19.740 --> 00:35:23.240
is 38 times more likely than hypothesis three

912
00:35:23.240 --> 00:35:24.333
and hypothesis four.

913
00:35:25.608 --> 00:35:27.923
So, who was Brian's father?

914
00:35:29.210 --> 00:35:31.740
Well, the probabilities are very strongly suggesting

915
00:35:31.740 --> 00:35:32.710
that it was James.

916
00:35:32.710 --> 00:35:36.690
There are no other known males within that generation.

917
00:35:36.690 --> 00:35:38.590
It's just Steve and James.

918
00:35:38.590 --> 00:35:41.120
And we've established that Brian isn't

919
00:35:41.120 --> 00:35:42.540
in Stephen's line.

920
00:35:42.540 --> 00:35:44.610
So the probabilities are very strongly suggesting

921
00:35:44.610 --> 00:35:45.710
it's James.

922
00:35:45.710 --> 00:35:48.230
But then of course, the genealogy comes into it too.

923
00:35:48.230 --> 00:35:50.773
Was James in Calgary in 1954?

924
00:35:50.773 --> 00:35:53.600
Well it turns out that he was.

925
00:35:53.600 --> 00:35:56.870
And so, the outcome I think is that both myself

926
00:35:56.870 --> 00:35:59.910
and Brian and other new cousins

927
00:35:59.910 --> 00:36:01.320
that Brian's been in touch with,

928
00:36:01.320 --> 00:36:04.363
are satisfied that James was indeed the father.

929
00:36:05.250 --> 00:36:08.437
So to sum up this obviously rather simple case,

930
00:36:08.437 --> 00:36:10.450
"What Are the Odds?" wasn't essential.

931
00:36:10.450 --> 00:36:12.270
With a match that close,

932
00:36:12.270 --> 00:36:13.830
I could have figured this out without it.

933
00:36:13.830 --> 00:36:16.210
But it did help add some clarity

934
00:36:16.210 --> 00:36:19.630
and help me to lay things out in a way

935
00:36:19.630 --> 00:36:22.270
that made sense to me and get to the

936
00:36:22.270 --> 00:36:23.723
solution quicker.

937
00:36:25.160 --> 00:36:27.180
Okay, so for my second case study,

938
00:36:27.180 --> 00:36:30.290
I have a more complex puzzle for you.

939
00:36:30.290 --> 00:36:33.230
And this was a kind of a slow boiler to be honest.

940
00:36:33.230 --> 00:36:36.070
I'd been writing to Mary for a couple of years.

941
00:36:36.070 --> 00:36:38.300
She was a match to my mother in law.

942
00:36:38.300 --> 00:36:40.480
And she had a fantastic tree.

943
00:36:40.480 --> 00:36:42.780
Actually a very, very detailed tree.

944
00:36:42.780 --> 00:36:46.548
And I could not find any connection within the tree at all.

945
00:36:46.548 --> 00:36:48.320
And of course, that's not uncommon.

946
00:36:48.320 --> 00:36:51.390
I spend most of my time looking for connections in trees

947
00:36:51.390 --> 00:36:52.340
and not finding them.

948
00:36:52.340 --> 00:36:54.290
So I didn't think that much of it.

949
00:36:54.290 --> 00:36:55.510
But I did keep coming back to it

950
00:36:55.510 --> 00:36:57.680
because she was a reasonably high match.

951
00:36:57.680 --> 00:36:59.970
And anyway after a bit of time,

952
00:36:59.970 --> 00:37:02.130
Mary wrote to me and she said,

953
00:37:02.130 --> 00:37:03.060
well I've got some news.

954
00:37:03.060 --> 00:37:04.720
I've just found out that actually my brother

955
00:37:04.720 --> 00:37:06.820
is only a half brother.

956
00:37:06.820 --> 00:37:09.320
So this obviously changed the shape of her tree

957
00:37:09.320 --> 00:37:10.930
quite a lot.

958
00:37:10.930 --> 00:37:12.320
And it became clear to me

959
00:37:12.320 --> 00:37:14.200
that my mother in law was a match

960
00:37:14.200 --> 00:37:16.590
via this unknown part of Mary's tree.

961
00:37:16.590 --> 00:37:18.070
So of course, I took it upon myself

962
00:37:18.070 --> 00:37:19.763
to offer my help.

963
00:37:21.690 --> 00:37:24.500
So, I have a clear research question here.

964
00:37:24.500 --> 00:37:28.143
Who was the father of Mary, born in 1940?

965
00:37:30.630 --> 00:37:33.050
So Mary's top matches were not quite

966
00:37:33.050 --> 00:37:36.350
as friendly to me as the 870 centimorgan match.

967
00:37:36.350 --> 00:37:39.920
We have Michelle at 114 centimorgans.

968
00:37:39.920 --> 00:37:43.580
And we have James at 99 centimorgans.

969
00:37:43.580 --> 00:37:46.027
So I'm gonna have to go a bit further back in the tree,

970
00:37:46.027 --> 00:37:49.200
aren't I to be able to get there?

971
00:37:49.200 --> 00:37:51.000
Of course, I should just say how do I know

972
00:37:51.000 --> 00:37:52.990
these people are on her unknown side?

973
00:37:52.990 --> 00:37:55.950
But in Mary's case, she's just discovered a half brother,

974
00:37:55.950 --> 00:37:58.510
so he's a maternal half brother.

975
00:37:58.510 --> 00:38:00.810
So that's really, really handy because

976
00:38:00.810 --> 00:38:03.480
if someone doesn't match the half brother,

977
00:38:03.480 --> 00:38:04.860
then it makes it much more likely

978
00:38:04.860 --> 00:38:08.150
that they are on the unknown paternal side.

979
00:38:08.150 --> 00:38:10.063
So, sometimes you don't have as good of

980
00:38:10.063 --> 00:38:11.660
a kind of benchmark as that.

981
00:38:11.660 --> 00:38:13.920
But in her case, she had her brother to test against.

982
00:38:13.920 --> 00:38:17.360
So I felt confident that both Michelle and James

983
00:38:17.360 --> 00:38:18.680
were on the unknown side.

984
00:38:18.680 --> 00:38:20.630
And they were also shared matches to each other.

985
00:38:20.630 --> 00:38:22.660
Which helped my cause.

986
00:38:22.660 --> 00:38:25.383
So, obviously it wasn't as easy as all this.

987
00:38:25.383 --> 00:38:27.870
So I put hard work in brackets.

988
00:38:27.870 --> 00:38:28.810
This is genealogy.

989
00:38:28.810 --> 00:38:31.760
We're all genealogists on this website I think.

990
00:38:31.760 --> 00:38:33.970
I did that genealogy to connect them

991
00:38:33.970 --> 00:38:36.460
and I made a massive tree.

992
00:38:36.460 --> 00:38:37.780
If you want to show a massive tree

993
00:38:37.780 --> 00:38:39.670
in a Power Point slide,

994
00:38:39.670 --> 00:38:41.020
you can't put all the details in.

995
00:38:41.020 --> 00:38:44.330
So this is necessarily top level.

996
00:38:44.330 --> 00:38:46.880
But I managed to fit them together

997
00:38:46.880 --> 00:38:47.713
into a tree.

998
00:38:47.713 --> 00:38:49.160
I was helped greatly by the fact

999
00:38:49.160 --> 00:38:52.090
that Mary was born in St. Louis, Missouri,

1000
00:38:52.090 --> 00:38:55.390
and in Missouri there's not only a fantastic

1001
00:38:55.390 --> 00:38:57.490
newspaper archive,

1002
00:38:57.490 --> 00:39:00.580
but there's also very good births, marriages,

1003
00:39:00.580 --> 00:39:03.660
and deaths records are available free online.

1004
00:39:03.660 --> 00:39:05.260
And so that was a massive gift.

1005
00:39:05.260 --> 00:39:07.600
To me, and I should,

1006
00:39:07.600 --> 00:39:08.557
I guess it would be remiss of me

1007
00:39:08.557 --> 00:39:10.124
not to mention that it isn't,

1008
00:39:10.124 --> 00:39:11.030
you know, it's often much harder

1009
00:39:11.030 --> 00:39:12.310
than it was for me here.

1010
00:39:12.310 --> 00:39:13.590
Even this was quite hard because I had

1011
00:39:13.590 --> 00:39:14.793
to go back quite far.

1012
00:39:16.310 --> 00:39:17.360
So at this point,

1013
00:39:17.360 --> 00:39:19.460
it's time for me to enter some hypotheses.

1014
00:39:19.460 --> 00:39:21.760
So let's just remember my research question,

1015
00:39:21.760 --> 00:39:23.990
I'm looking for a male person,

1016
00:39:23.990 --> 00:39:28.710
who was in St. Louis and able to father a child in 1940.

1017
00:39:29.700 --> 00:39:31.720
So I've got some candidates here.

1018
00:39:31.720 --> 00:39:33.980
One was born in 1903.

1019
00:39:33.980 --> 00:39:35.460
One was born in 1912.

1020
00:39:35.460 --> 00:39:37.233
One in 1910, 1917, 1918.

1021
00:39:40.640 --> 00:39:43.500
Okay, unfortunately I get identical scores

1022
00:39:43.500 --> 00:39:47.510
when I place Mary in any of these positions.

1023
00:39:47.510 --> 00:39:50.790
They all get a score of one.

1024
00:39:50.790 --> 00:39:51.630
So what does that mean?

1025
00:39:51.630 --> 00:39:54.090
It means that statistically speaking,

1026
00:39:54.090 --> 00:39:55.450
I don't have a lead.

1027
00:39:55.450 --> 00:39:57.530
John, Gareth, Joseph,

1028
00:39:57.530 --> 00:39:59.610
Leo, or Vince,

1029
00:39:59.610 --> 00:40:01.577
could all have been Mary's father.

1030
00:40:01.577 --> 00:40:04.590
And I haven't actually got any other matches up my sleeve.

1031
00:40:04.590 --> 00:40:06.150
So, what do I do now?

1032
00:40:06.150 --> 00:40:07.120
Honestly, I didn't know.

1033
00:40:07.120 --> 00:40:09.040
I was learning on the job here.

1034
00:40:09.040 --> 00:40:12.060
What I did was I went back a generation.

1035
00:40:12.060 --> 00:40:15.430
So if we look at the top candidate there,

1036
00:40:15.430 --> 00:40:17.880
if John Jr. was gonna be Mary's father,

1037
00:40:17.880 --> 00:40:19.860
that would mean that his father, John,

1038
00:40:19.860 --> 00:40:23.490
would be her paternal grandfather, right?

1039
00:40:23.490 --> 00:40:26.750
So what I needed to do was look at who John married.

1040
00:40:26.750 --> 00:40:28.780
You know, who was John Jr.'s mother?

1041
00:40:28.780 --> 00:40:31.580
So John married a lady called Margaret Kennedy

1042
00:40:32.640 --> 00:40:34.323
in St. Louis, Missouri.

1043
00:40:35.280 --> 00:40:37.270
And if John is the grandfather,

1044
00:40:37.270 --> 00:40:39.830
obviously Margaret would be the grandmother.

1045
00:40:39.830 --> 00:40:42.690
And if you've worked with your DNA matches very much,

1046
00:40:42.690 --> 00:40:44.870
you would recall that it's likely that you're gonna share

1047
00:40:44.870 --> 00:40:47.030
significant DNA with your grandmother.

1048
00:40:47.030 --> 00:40:50.220
So I would expect if Margaret Kennedy

1049
00:40:50.220 --> 00:40:52.810
was Mary's grandmother, I would expect

1050
00:40:52.810 --> 00:40:56.310
the signal within Mary's DNA match to be

1051
00:40:56.310 --> 00:40:58.250
well, significant and hopefully visible.

1052
00:40:58.250 --> 00:41:02.060
So, I went back to Mary's DNA match list

1053
00:41:02.060 --> 00:41:03.690
and asked myself the question,

1054
00:41:03.690 --> 00:41:06.870
does Mary have any links to this Kennedy family?

1055
00:41:06.870 --> 00:41:08.340
Because if she does,

1056
00:41:08.340 --> 00:41:09.730
that would be a brilliant lead.

1057
00:41:09.730 --> 00:41:10.563
And if she doesn't,

1058
00:41:10.563 --> 00:41:12.230
it doesn't mean that Mary isn't related

1059
00:41:12.230 --> 00:41:13.063
by that family,

1060
00:41:13.063 --> 00:41:15.610
it might just be that no one else in that family

1061
00:41:15.610 --> 00:41:16.740
has tested.

1062
00:41:16.740 --> 00:41:18.978
And no one else within descendants.

1063
00:41:18.978 --> 00:41:19.811
And so I had a look.

1064
00:41:19.811 --> 00:41:21.700
And in fact, there was quite a significant match.

1065
00:41:21.700 --> 00:41:25.290
I think it was in the 60 to 70 centimorgan mark.

1066
00:41:25.290 --> 00:41:27.280
Where I previously didn't know what to do with 'em

1067
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:29.990
'cause I didn't know anything about this Kennedy family.

1068
00:41:29.990 --> 00:41:31.300
But now I have that in mind.

1069
00:41:31.300 --> 00:41:34.170
I was able to find that yes, I could get that match

1070
00:41:34.170 --> 00:41:36.113
back to that same Kennedy family.

1071
00:41:37.010 --> 00:41:37.843
So that's brilliant.

1072
00:41:37.843 --> 00:41:39.060
It gave me affirmation that

1073
00:41:39.930 --> 00:41:41.450
I was on the right track.

1074
00:41:41.450 --> 00:41:42.750
So now I can zoom in

1075
00:41:42.750 --> 00:41:44.930
to an extra level of the tree.

1076
00:41:44.930 --> 00:41:46.760
And I've only got two candidates now

1077
00:41:46.760 --> 00:41:48.120
to be the father.

1078
00:41:48.120 --> 00:41:50.540
So we have John who was born in 1904

1079
00:41:51.630 --> 00:41:55.633
and we have Gareth, who was born in 1916.

1080
00:41:56.800 --> 00:41:59.840
So, they both have an equal score.

1081
00:41:59.840 --> 00:42:01.080
And obviously this all still

1082
00:42:01.080 --> 00:42:03.170
feels slightly speculative to me.

1083
00:42:03.170 --> 00:42:05.240
Kennedy is quite a common name.

1084
00:42:05.240 --> 00:42:07.100
I mean, I believe in my abilities

1085
00:42:07.100 --> 00:42:08.940
to not mess up that research.

1086
00:42:08.940 --> 00:42:11.400
I believe she had a genuine link to that family.

1087
00:42:11.400 --> 00:42:13.090
But I certainly didn't feel confident enough

1088
00:42:13.090 --> 00:42:14.707
to phone Mary up and say,

1089
00:42:14.707 --> 00:42:16.525
"Hey, I found out who your dad was.

1090
00:42:16.525 --> 00:42:17.967
"Why don't you invite these people around

1091
00:42:17.967 --> 00:42:19.090
"for Thanksgiving kind of thing."

1092
00:42:19.090 --> 00:42:21.340
I did not feel comfortable with that.

1093
00:42:21.340 --> 00:42:23.520
So my next task really was to find

1094
00:42:23.520 --> 00:42:25.263
some living relatives.

1095
00:42:26.130 --> 00:42:27.560
So that I could target test 'em.

1096
00:42:27.560 --> 00:42:29.210
So by target testing that just means,

1097
00:42:29.210 --> 00:42:32.345
say please can you test for me?

1098
00:42:32.345 --> 00:42:33.178
(laughs)

1099
00:42:33.178 --> 00:42:34.330
So that I can help my friend out.

1100
00:42:34.330 --> 00:42:36.640
So, Tommy and Pamela,

1101
00:42:36.640 --> 00:42:38.950
if my hypotheses are correct,

1102
00:42:38.950 --> 00:42:42.220
then they would be first cousins, once removed

1103
00:42:42.220 --> 00:42:43.960
for Mary.

1104
00:42:43.960 --> 00:42:46.460
So if I could just get them to test,

1105
00:42:46.460 --> 00:42:47.747
that's pretty close.

1106
00:42:47.747 --> 00:42:48.580
I mean, I could be unlucky,

1107
00:42:48.580 --> 00:42:50.240
they might be really low sharing

1108
00:42:50.240 --> 00:42:51.410
first cousins, once removed.

1109
00:42:51.410 --> 00:42:54.170
But, hopefully that could be a strong enough signal

1110
00:42:54.170 --> 00:42:55.688
for me to really feel okay.

1111
00:42:55.688 --> 00:42:57.353
And then I'd be expected centimorgans of DNA

1112
00:42:57.353 --> 00:43:00.190
that you would share with a first cousin, once removed.

1113
00:43:00.190 --> 00:43:03.170
According to Blaine Bettinger's shared centimorgan project,

1114
00:43:03.170 --> 00:43:05.597
would be 433 centimorgans.

1115
00:43:05.597 --> 00:43:07.780
But it could be as low as 102,

1116
00:43:07.780 --> 00:43:09.603
and it could be much higher.

1117
00:43:10.830 --> 00:43:12.273
So I wrote to them.

1118
00:43:13.312 --> 00:43:15.380
It's a kind of a weird message to write, isn't it?

1119
00:43:15.380 --> 00:43:19.010
But, Mary felt kinda funny about doing it herself.

1120
00:43:19.010 --> 00:43:20.106
So I wrote to them.

1121
00:43:20.106 --> 00:43:21.090
I just wrote a short note

1122
00:43:21.090 --> 00:43:23.510
just saying please would you consider testing?

1123
00:43:23.510 --> 00:43:25.770
And, as you can imagine, I wasn't remotely surprised

1124
00:43:25.770 --> 00:43:26.830
not to hear back from them.

1125
00:43:26.830 --> 00:43:28.720
Because I mean, what would you do?

1126
00:43:28.720 --> 00:43:29.810
It's a strange thing isn't it?

1127
00:43:29.810 --> 00:43:31.210
Imagine getting a letter that just says

1128
00:43:31.210 --> 00:43:33.794
please spit into a tube,

1129
00:43:33.794 --> 00:43:36.080
or swab your mouth for me.

1130
00:43:36.080 --> 00:43:38.020
It's a big ask really.

1131
00:43:38.020 --> 00:43:41.170
I did say obviously that we'd pay for the test.

1132
00:43:41.170 --> 00:43:43.780
But, I didn't hear back from them.

1133
00:43:43.780 --> 00:43:45.380
I just, I didn't hear back from them at all

1134
00:43:45.380 --> 00:43:46.330
is what happened.

1135
00:43:46.330 --> 00:43:48.269
I actually went on holiday.

1136
00:43:48.269 --> 00:43:50.680
You know, I have good memories of that holiday to Germany

1137
00:43:50.680 --> 00:43:52.720
last summer to see my sister.

1138
00:43:52.720 --> 00:43:55.910
And, I was hanging around in my sister's house

1139
00:43:55.910 --> 00:43:58.230
when suddenly I got an email from Mary

1140
00:43:58.230 --> 00:44:00.590
saying you'll never guess who's popped up

1141
00:44:00.590 --> 00:44:01.790
on my match list.

1142
00:44:01.790 --> 00:44:04.710
And it turned that even though she never replied to me,

1143
00:44:04.710 --> 00:44:07.233
Pamela did go and do a DNA test.

1144
00:44:08.100 --> 00:44:10.270
And that looks good, doesn't it?

1145
00:44:10.270 --> 00:44:12.710
370 centimorgans shared.

1146
00:44:12.710 --> 00:44:15.590
So, sure that's reasonably close to what

1147
00:44:15.590 --> 00:44:19.030
you might expect a first cousin, once removed to share.

1148
00:44:19.030 --> 00:44:21.700
One feature that's been added to the online

1149
00:44:21.700 --> 00:44:23.580
shared centimorgan tool recently,

1150
00:44:23.580 --> 00:44:24.413
which has actually been

1151
00:44:24.413 --> 00:44:26.210
in Blaine Bettinger's original research I think

1152
00:44:26.210 --> 00:44:28.310
for the last two or three releases,

1153
00:44:28.310 --> 00:44:29.860
is the histograms.

1154
00:44:29.860 --> 00:44:31.423
The histograms are really important.

1155
00:44:31.423 --> 00:44:32.500
They have those averages there.

1156
00:44:32.500 --> 00:44:34.450
But this gives you the kind of curve

1157
00:44:34.450 --> 00:44:38.230
of who reported which amount of DNA shared.

1158
00:44:38.230 --> 00:44:41.890
And so we can see that for the bin between 300 and 400,

1159
00:44:41.890 --> 00:44:43.660
that's a very, very, very much in the center

1160
00:44:43.660 --> 00:44:45.320
of that curve for the first cousin,

1161
00:44:45.320 --> 00:44:47.640
once removed relationship.

1162
00:44:47.640 --> 00:44:50.130
So obviously I still could be wrong,

1163
00:44:50.130 --> 00:44:53.010
but it's looking very, very promising to me

1164
00:44:53.010 --> 00:44:55.603
that we found where Mary belongs in this tree.

1165
00:44:56.770 --> 00:44:59.200
So if I plug that number into the tree,

1166
00:44:59.200 --> 00:45:01.330
we can see that compared to those other ones

1167
00:45:01.330 --> 00:45:02.930
where previously they were all one,

1168
00:45:02.930 --> 00:45:05.810
suddenly the concept that John or Gareth

1169
00:45:05.810 --> 00:45:09.380
is the father jumps up to 50.

1170
00:45:09.380 --> 00:45:11.463
Which again gives me great confidence.

1171
00:45:12.480 --> 00:45:13.313
So what we can we say?

1172
00:45:13.313 --> 00:45:16.520
Well, unfortunately, neither John nor Gareth

1173
00:45:16.520 --> 00:45:19.460
had any other known descendants.

1174
00:45:19.460 --> 00:45:21.390
So, all I can actually say to Mary

1175
00:45:21.390 --> 00:45:25.220
is look, John or Gareth was your father.

1176
00:45:25.220 --> 00:45:26.910
She's very philosophical about it.

1177
00:45:26.910 --> 00:45:28.850
She's just looking for some medical information really

1178
00:45:28.850 --> 00:45:30.580
to pass down to her family.

1179
00:45:30.580 --> 00:45:34.090
And thanks to the incredible Missouri records,

1180
00:45:34.090 --> 00:45:35.180
she has that information.

1181
00:45:35.180 --> 00:45:38.580
I think she has the cause of death for several generations

1182
00:45:38.580 --> 00:45:40.140
on her direct no line now,

1183
00:45:40.140 --> 00:45:41.720
which is incredible.

1184
00:45:41.720 --> 00:45:43.820
So, what can we take away from this?

1185
00:45:43.820 --> 00:45:45.150
Obviously there was an enormous amount

1186
00:45:45.150 --> 00:45:46.820
of tree building work

1187
00:45:46.820 --> 00:45:48.610
and it would be easy for me to gloss over that,

1188
00:45:48.610 --> 00:45:51.690
but I'm gonna reiterate here that you need

1189
00:45:51.690 --> 00:45:53.963
to prepare to do a lot of tree building work.

1190
00:45:54.840 --> 00:45:56.960
It's important to remember to check for DNA links

1191
00:45:56.960 --> 00:45:57.793
to spouses.

1192
00:45:57.793 --> 00:45:58.887
That isn't something you're doing within

1193
00:45:58.887 --> 00:46:01.080
"What Are the Odds?" so it could be slightly

1194
00:46:01.080 --> 00:46:02.730
counterintuitive to do it.

1195
00:46:02.730 --> 00:46:04.130
But obviously it's very powerful

1196
00:46:04.130 --> 00:46:05.940
if you can find those links.

1197
00:46:05.940 --> 00:46:07.607
What I did was actually created a separate

1198
00:46:07.607 --> 00:46:09.190
"What Are the Odds?" for Mary

1199
00:46:09.190 --> 00:46:11.860
for all of her Kennedy links.

1200
00:46:11.860 --> 00:46:13.130
And then, finally, you have to be ready

1201
00:46:13.130 --> 00:46:14.130
to do target testing.

1202
00:46:14.130 --> 00:46:16.680
So that does normally mean a financial investment.

1203
00:46:16.680 --> 00:46:19.350
In this case, I didn't actually have to pay any money

1204
00:46:19.350 --> 00:46:21.477
'cause she did it her own accord.

1205
00:46:21.477 --> 00:46:23.360
But obviously that's maybe necessary

1206
00:46:23.360 --> 00:46:25.410
for you to get the outcome that you want.

1207
00:46:26.690 --> 00:46:30.290
You have to be incredibly patient and persistent.

1208
00:46:30.290 --> 00:46:32.210
And I guess you have to reconcile yourself

1209
00:46:32.210 --> 00:46:34.600
to the fact there may actually not be

1210
00:46:34.600 --> 00:46:35.803
a definitive answer.

1211
00:46:38.770 --> 00:46:40.017
And help is available.

1212
00:46:40.017 --> 00:46:42.150
I'm not gonna pretend this is easy.

1213
00:46:42.150 --> 00:46:42.983
I think the first thing we say

1214
00:46:42.983 --> 00:46:45.490
at the top of the frequently asked questions page

1215
00:46:45.490 --> 00:46:47.080
for the tool is,

1216
00:46:47.080 --> 00:46:48.608
this is quite hard, you know?

1217
00:46:48.608 --> 00:46:50.590
It's quite an advanced tool.

1218
00:46:50.590 --> 00:46:52.220
I'd like to think that it could be broken down

1219
00:46:52.220 --> 00:46:54.030
into reasonably simple terms.

1220
00:46:54.030 --> 00:46:56.410
What I was saying is it's harder to explain

1221
00:46:56.410 --> 00:46:58.270
than it is to actually do.

1222
00:46:58.270 --> 00:46:59.837
So if you can jump in there and do it

1223
00:46:59.837 --> 00:47:01.740
and have everything you need to do it,

1224
00:47:01.740 --> 00:47:03.220
that's probably gonna be easier than listening

1225
00:47:03.220 --> 00:47:05.380
to the people who try to explain

1226
00:47:05.380 --> 00:47:07.307
in virtual terms what it does if you like.

1227
00:47:07.307 --> 00:47:09.820
And we have a very active Facebook group.

1228
00:47:09.820 --> 00:47:11.690
So if you're a Facebook user and you're interested

1229
00:47:11.690 --> 00:47:12.523
in the tool,

1230
00:47:12.523 --> 00:47:15.600
I would definitely recommend that you join up.

1231
00:47:15.600 --> 00:47:16.750
And the link to that is also in

1232
00:47:16.750 --> 00:47:18.113
the syllabus today.

1233
00:47:19.980 --> 00:47:21.730
So caveats and limitations.

1234
00:47:21.730 --> 00:47:23.890
So I guess I made it clear already, right?

1235
00:47:23.890 --> 00:47:26.570
So, "What Are the Odds?" is not a silver bullet.

1236
00:47:26.570 --> 00:47:28.550
It's not gonna magically give you the answer

1237
00:47:28.550 --> 00:47:30.740
without any work from you.

1238
00:47:30.740 --> 00:47:32.420
And even if you do locate this work,

1239
00:47:32.420 --> 00:47:34.970
it's not necessarily gonna give you the answer.

1240
00:47:34.970 --> 00:47:37.870
It's very important to understand the scores.

1241
00:47:37.870 --> 00:47:39.770
That's something we quite often hear from people

1242
00:47:39.770 --> 00:47:40.760
who are new to the tool

1243
00:47:40.760 --> 00:47:44.470
is well, I expected a higher score.

1244
00:47:44.470 --> 00:47:46.320
Once you understand in more detail

1245
00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:48.200
what the odds ratios are,

1246
00:47:48.200 --> 00:47:50.130
you'll understand you don't necessarily need

1247
00:47:50.130 --> 00:47:51.123
a high score.

1248
00:47:52.470 --> 00:47:54.280
Having a really high score doesn't necessarily

1249
00:47:54.280 --> 00:47:56.850
even mean you've got the correct hypothesis.

1250
00:47:56.850 --> 00:47:59.110
And one of the things that Leah, the creator

1251
00:47:59.110 --> 00:48:00.510
of the concept came up with

1252
00:48:00.510 --> 00:48:04.160
was effectively, if you've target tested enough people,

1253
00:48:04.160 --> 00:48:05.400
you could end up with a scenario

1254
00:48:05.400 --> 00:48:08.100
where only one hypothesis is possible.

1255
00:48:08.100 --> 00:48:09.440
Now in that case, that hypothesis

1256
00:48:09.440 --> 00:48:11.230
would have a score of one.

1257
00:48:11.230 --> 00:48:13.130
That doesn't devalue that hypothesis.

1258
00:48:13.130 --> 00:48:14.190
It doesn't mean it's no good

1259
00:48:14.190 --> 00:48:15.410
'cause it's not

1260
00:48:15.410 --> 00:48:18.500
1,500,491.

1261
00:48:18.500 --> 00:48:20.670
A score of one is just fine.

1262
00:48:20.670 --> 00:48:21.960
So long as you've considered

1263
00:48:21.960 --> 00:48:23.580
all the other possibilities

1264
00:48:23.580 --> 00:48:24.530
and ruled them out.

1265
00:48:25.610 --> 00:48:28.460
So this is not a straightforward topic.

1266
00:48:28.460 --> 00:48:30.450
I think I'd be overreaching if I thought

1267
00:48:30.450 --> 00:48:32.550
I could try and explain it to you in one slide.

1268
00:48:32.550 --> 00:48:35.880
So I'll just say we've got this frequently asked questions

1269
00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:37.930
page and I would recommend having a read.

1270
00:48:39.380 --> 00:48:40.783
It's very important for me to tell you

1271
00:48:40.783 --> 00:48:43.720
that the simulations do not account

1272
00:48:43.720 --> 00:48:46.030
for endogamous ancestry.

1273
00:48:46.030 --> 00:48:48.290
They also don't account for pedigree collapse

1274
00:48:48.290 --> 00:48:50.790
or for multiple relationships.

1275
00:48:50.790 --> 00:48:52.050
The reason for that being

1276
00:48:52.050 --> 00:48:55.300
that the range of possible amounts of DNA shared

1277
00:48:55.300 --> 00:48:58.170
for these relationships is going to be broader.

1278
00:48:58.170 --> 00:49:00.633
So there's gonna be, potentially you might be

1279
00:49:00.633 --> 00:49:02.860
a first cousin, and you might share more

1280
00:49:02.860 --> 00:49:04.740
than normally this to seem for that would be.

1281
00:49:04.740 --> 00:49:07.130
So the probabilities which are used

1282
00:49:07.130 --> 00:49:10.480
behind the tool chart I'll be talking about shortly,

1283
00:49:10.480 --> 00:49:11.850
they can't currently account for that.

1284
00:49:11.850 --> 00:49:13.780
I do hope there's something we can do about that

1285
00:49:13.780 --> 00:49:14.683
in the meantime.

1286
00:49:15.520 --> 00:49:18.440
People who have got this within their family mystery.

1287
00:49:18.440 --> 00:49:21.040
If you do have endogamy or pedigree collapse,

1288
00:49:21.040 --> 00:49:21.980
you can still use the tool.

1289
00:49:21.980 --> 00:49:24.570
It can be incredibly helpful to quickly

1290
00:49:24.570 --> 00:49:25.907
visualize things and share them.

1291
00:49:25.907 --> 00:49:27.600
And it quite possible,

1292
00:49:27.600 --> 00:49:29.477
that the scores will also help you.

1293
00:49:29.477 --> 00:49:31.169
But it's just worth bearing in mind

1294
00:49:31.169 --> 00:49:33.473
they don't hold water in quite the same way.

1295
00:49:34.960 --> 00:49:38.000
Okay, so we're onto the exciting bit of the talk.

1296
00:49:38.000 --> 00:49:39.430
The new beta version.

1297
00:49:39.430 --> 00:49:41.110
So I say exciting.

1298
00:49:41.110 --> 00:49:42.130
It's particularly exciting for me

1299
00:49:42.130 --> 00:49:45.040
because I only launched it about an hour ago.

1300
00:49:45.040 --> 00:49:47.340
And well I'm hoping I'm not gonna come off

1301
00:49:47.340 --> 00:49:50.230
this webinar and find any issues.

1302
00:49:50.230 --> 00:49:51.370
It is a beta version.

1303
00:49:51.370 --> 00:49:54.800
I'm sure that there might still be a few bugs.

1304
00:49:54.800 --> 00:49:55.757
And that happens when you try

1305
00:49:55.757 --> 00:49:56.970
and do something ambitious.

1306
00:49:56.970 --> 00:49:59.543
You know, it doesn't always work 100% the first time.

1307
00:49:59.543 --> 00:50:02.300
But, I feel excited about it.

1308
00:50:02.300 --> 00:50:05.180
So you can find this on the tools page

1309
00:50:05.180 --> 00:50:06.670
at DNA Painter.

1310
00:50:06.670 --> 00:50:09.193
There's actually a direct link to it here as well.

1311
00:50:11.380 --> 00:50:12.560
And what does it have in it?

1312
00:50:12.560 --> 00:50:14.470
Well, I guess the big news

1313
00:50:14.470 --> 00:50:16.210
is there are more up to date probabilities.

1314
00:50:16.210 --> 00:50:19.150
So, I'll chat a little bit about

1315
00:50:19.150 --> 00:50:21.040
the probabilities as they are now.

1316
00:50:21.040 --> 00:50:25.500
So the tool originally used the probabilities

1317
00:50:25.500 --> 00:50:28.570
extracted from figure 5.2 of Ancestry's

1318
00:50:29.490 --> 00:50:30.780
DNA Matching White Paper,

1319
00:50:30.780 --> 00:50:32.990
which was from 2016.

1320
00:50:32.990 --> 00:50:36.950
So Leah extracted probabilities from this.

1321
00:50:36.950 --> 00:50:40.090
And they are the engine room

1322
00:50:40.090 --> 00:50:40.923
behind "What Are the Odds?".

1323
00:50:40.923 --> 00:50:42.980
They're the things that are powering

1324
00:50:42.980 --> 00:50:44.930
those individual probabilities.

1325
00:50:44.930 --> 00:50:47.330
So they're saying that it's this percent likely

1326
00:50:47.330 --> 00:50:49.900
that say an 800 centimorgan match

1327
00:50:49.900 --> 00:50:51.523
is a first cousin, for example.

1328
00:50:52.710 --> 00:50:55.320
Now they are based on simulations.

1329
00:50:55.320 --> 00:50:57.340
And also at the low levels,

1330
00:50:57.340 --> 00:50:59.020
below 40 centimorgans,

1331
00:50:59.020 --> 00:51:00.470
Ancestry actually hadn't modeled them.

1332
00:51:00.470 --> 00:51:02.190
So those had to extrapolated by us.

1333
00:51:02.190 --> 00:51:05.170
Which we were never completely comfortable with.

1334
00:51:05.170 --> 00:51:08.480
So shortly after we launched the shared centimorgan project

1335
00:51:08.480 --> 00:51:10.250
with the probabilities in it,

1336
00:51:10.250 --> 00:51:11.580
Ancestry actually came up

1337
00:51:11.580 --> 00:51:14.660
with their own percentage probability

1338
00:51:14.660 --> 00:51:16.620
on the match data on their pages.

1339
00:51:16.620 --> 00:51:18.930
So they actually used very slightly different numbers.

1340
00:51:18.930 --> 00:51:19.943
So we were like oh, that's interesting.

1341
00:51:19.943 --> 00:51:22.760
They're using numbers based

1342
00:51:22.760 --> 00:51:23.920
on some different research there.

1343
00:51:23.920 --> 00:51:26.540
And they've updated them again since then.

1344
00:51:26.540 --> 00:51:29.180
So, Leah's made this graph,

1345
00:51:29.180 --> 00:51:32.200
which compares the old probabilities with the new ones.

1346
00:51:32.200 --> 00:51:34.330
Now, you may notice from the slightly

1347
00:51:34.330 --> 00:51:35.420
wavering nature of my voice

1348
00:51:35.420 --> 00:51:38.230
that this isn't actually my specialty area,

1349
00:51:38.230 --> 00:51:39.880
but I guess I'll come up with some highlights

1350
00:51:39.880 --> 00:51:41.450
for you here.

1351
00:51:41.450 --> 00:51:42.670
I guess the takeaway are,

1352
00:51:42.670 --> 00:51:44.693
these are much more detailed probabilities

1353
00:51:44.693 --> 00:51:45.970
than the previous ones.

1354
00:51:45.970 --> 00:51:48.130
We have not one, but two,

1355
00:51:48.130 --> 00:51:49.280
new groups of relationships.

1356
00:51:49.280 --> 00:51:51.240
So in the old probabilities,

1357
00:51:51.240 --> 00:51:53.370
we had fourth cousin, once removed,

1358
00:51:53.370 --> 00:51:54.700
and further out.

1359
00:51:54.700 --> 00:51:55.533
And then beyond that,

1360
00:51:55.533 --> 00:51:57.630
there was no more specificity.

1361
00:51:57.630 --> 00:51:59.270
So now we have a specific fourth cousin,

1362
00:51:59.270 --> 00:52:01.200
once removed category.

1363
00:52:01.200 --> 00:52:03.640
Then we have a fifth cousin category.

1364
00:52:03.640 --> 00:52:06.690
And we have a distant category.

1365
00:52:06.690 --> 00:52:09.093
So that, well hopefully it means

1366
00:52:09.093 --> 00:52:12.720
that the stats are more accurate

1367
00:52:12.720 --> 00:52:13.720
than they were before.

1368
00:52:13.720 --> 00:52:14.553
They are different.

1369
00:52:14.553 --> 00:52:17.250
And I think they'll be a bit of a shock for some people

1370
00:52:17.250 --> 00:52:18.083
when they compare them

1371
00:52:18.083 --> 00:52:20.060
because they're used to looking at certain number

1372
00:52:20.060 --> 00:52:23.050
of statistics and they'll find they've changed a bit.

1373
00:52:23.050 --> 00:52:25.070
So, I pulled out one little comparison

1374
00:52:25.070 --> 00:52:26.810
for us to look at here.

1375
00:52:26.810 --> 00:52:29.180
109 centimorgans, that seems to be a theme

1376
00:52:29.180 --> 00:52:30.310
in this webinar.

1377
00:52:30.310 --> 00:52:32.510
The old stats from the left there,

1378
00:52:32.510 --> 00:52:34.400
and the new ones are on the right.

1379
00:52:34.400 --> 00:52:36.880
So, what can sort of pull out here?

1380
00:52:36.880 --> 00:52:39.920
Okay a fourth cousin was just above 4% likely

1381
00:52:39.920 --> 00:52:40.753
in the old stats.

1382
00:52:40.753 --> 00:52:43.813
So now that's dropped down to 0.5%.

1383
00:52:45.320 --> 00:52:46.153
That's an interesting one.

1384
00:52:46.153 --> 00:52:47.600
I think, the other thing I've noticed

1385
00:52:47.600 --> 00:52:50.210
is if you go down to the really low centimorgan numbers

1386
00:52:50.210 --> 00:52:51.610
like 10 or 15,

1387
00:52:51.610 --> 00:52:53.410
they've got a tiny, tiny proportion

1388
00:52:53.410 --> 00:52:55.340
that could even be a second cousin.

1389
00:52:55.340 --> 00:52:57.780
And that wasn't possible in the old probabilities.

1390
00:52:57.780 --> 00:52:58.690
So like I said,

1391
00:52:58.690 --> 00:52:59.960
these are really new.

1392
00:52:59.960 --> 00:53:02.360
I'll be fascinated to hear feedback

1393
00:53:02.360 --> 00:53:03.630
from people and whether they think

1394
00:53:03.630 --> 00:53:04.920
that these add clarity.

1395
00:53:04.920 --> 00:53:06.140
Or whether people are annoyed.

1396
00:53:06.140 --> 00:53:07.250
Maybe people liked,

1397
00:53:07.250 --> 00:53:08.290
give me my old stats back.

1398
00:53:08.290 --> 00:53:09.870
Why have you changed them?

1399
00:53:09.870 --> 00:53:12.050
To be clear, I haven't taken the other ones away.

1400
00:53:12.050 --> 00:53:13.810
They're still available.

1401
00:53:13.810 --> 00:53:16.850
But we have more up to date statistics.

1402
00:53:16.850 --> 00:53:18.860
I've made a beta version

1403
00:53:18.860 --> 00:53:20.600
of the shared centimorgan tool

1404
00:53:20.600 --> 00:53:22.453
which uses these statistics.

1405
00:53:24.890 --> 00:53:27.910
So the new "What Are the Odds?" is at this

1406
00:53:27.910 --> 00:53:29.213
linkage ends wato.

1407
00:53:30.500 --> 00:53:32.610
I should note that your trees still exist in both.

1408
00:53:32.610 --> 00:53:35.140
So you can actually still look at any WATO

1409
00:53:35.140 --> 00:53:35.973
trees you have.

1410
00:53:35.973 --> 00:53:37.470
You can look at them in the old and the new tool

1411
00:53:37.470 --> 00:53:40.003
if you want to compare the scores.

1412
00:53:41.690 --> 00:53:43.423
Now we're getting to the innovations

1413
00:53:43.423 --> 00:53:45.060
that I put my heart into.

1414
00:53:45.060 --> 00:53:46.860
So you can now enter the birth year

1415
00:53:46.860 --> 00:53:48.410
for the target person.

1416
00:53:48.410 --> 00:53:51.320
So here we're looking for someone called Ken.

1417
00:53:51.320 --> 00:53:52.880
We're looking for his father in fact.

1418
00:53:52.880 --> 00:53:56.310
I'm able to say that Ken was born in 1972.

1419
00:53:56.310 --> 00:53:58.720
So the tool can now use that information

1420
00:53:58.720 --> 00:54:00.670
to inform what it does.

1421
00:54:00.670 --> 00:54:01.503
Okay?

1422
00:54:02.370 --> 00:54:05.320
So in order to get my tree in there

1423
00:54:05.320 --> 00:54:07.250
well previously I had to enter it manually.

1424
00:54:07.250 --> 00:54:10.850
Now I can import a GEDCOM file, yes.

1425
00:54:10.850 --> 00:54:12.530
This was not particularly easy to do,

1426
00:54:12.530 --> 00:54:15.440
but it was very important for me to get it done.

1427
00:54:15.440 --> 00:54:17.770
So now if you load in your GEDCOM,

1428
00:54:17.770 --> 00:54:20.670
it will ask you to select the person

1429
00:54:20.670 --> 00:54:22.290
or the ancestral couple

1430
00:54:22.290 --> 00:54:24.750
whose descendants you want to import.

1431
00:54:24.750 --> 00:54:27.290
And by default it's just gonna import them

1432
00:54:27.290 --> 00:54:29.550
with living people having their initials.

1433
00:54:29.550 --> 00:54:32.278
But you can import the full names of people if you want to.

1434
00:54:32.278 --> 00:54:34.403
And that's obviously just for privacy reasons.

1435
00:54:35.300 --> 00:54:37.600
We have a new option when you hover.

1436
00:54:37.600 --> 00:54:41.490
We have something called add and edit details.

1437
00:54:41.490 --> 00:54:46.350
And this contains the data which can either be imported

1438
00:54:46.350 --> 00:54:47.207
from the GEDCOM,

1439
00:54:47.207 --> 00:54:48.840
which you can enter yourself,

1440
00:54:48.840 --> 00:54:49.960
if you're doing a manual tree.

1441
00:54:49.960 --> 00:54:52.200
So you can put the birth and the death dates

1442
00:54:52.200 --> 00:54:53.050
of the people in

1443
00:54:53.050 --> 00:54:54.850
and you can put the gender.

1444
00:54:54.850 --> 00:54:56.170
And you can add spouses.

1445
00:54:56.170 --> 00:54:59.120
Now the spouses is just for display purposes really.

1446
00:54:59.120 --> 00:55:00.330
Just so if you've got half siblings,

1447
00:55:00.330 --> 00:55:03.290
you can be clear who is the mother of which child.

1448
00:55:03.290 --> 00:55:05.400
But the birth and the death information

1449
00:55:05.400 --> 00:55:07.250
and also the gender information

1450
00:55:07.250 --> 00:55:11.233
are used by the tool to potentially invalidate hypotheses.

1451
00:55:12.410 --> 00:55:15.070
So, the big one I guess is hey,

1452
00:55:15.070 --> 00:55:18.180
we've got a button here called SUGGEST HYPOTHESES.

1453
00:55:18.180 --> 00:55:20.317
So if you click on that button,

1454
00:55:20.317 --> 00:55:21.950
"What Are the Odds?" will actually suggest

1455
00:55:21.950 --> 00:55:22.990
the hypotheses for you.

1456
00:55:22.990 --> 00:55:26.030
You don't have to add them manually necessarily.

1457
00:55:26.030 --> 00:55:26.863
It'll do it for you.

1458
00:55:26.863 --> 00:55:29.040
So you click the button.

1459
00:55:29.040 --> 00:55:32.210
It will churn away and it will consider

1460
00:55:32.210 --> 00:55:33.630
all the different places it can

1461
00:55:33.630 --> 00:55:35.890
where it thinks that the target might fit

1462
00:55:35.890 --> 00:55:37.883
based on the data that you've entered,

1463
00:55:38.847 --> 00:55:41.820
and it will suggest a plethora of different positions

1464
00:55:41.820 --> 00:55:43.230
in the tree.

1465
00:55:43.230 --> 00:55:44.560
Wonderful.

1466
00:55:44.560 --> 00:55:45.850
Yeah, kind of wonderful.

1467
00:55:45.850 --> 00:55:46.683
But you know what?

1468
00:55:46.683 --> 00:55:48.170
This is quite new to me

1469
00:55:48.170 --> 00:55:50.270
and I don't know.

1470
00:55:50.270 --> 00:55:52.090
There's a few things to bear in mind.

1471
00:55:52.090 --> 00:55:54.230
The big one which I'll be repeating a couple of times

1472
00:55:54.230 --> 00:55:57.880
is that it's gonna create all these different hypotheses.

1473
00:55:57.880 --> 00:56:00.730
Mathematically possible ones will be created.

1474
00:56:00.730 --> 00:56:02.970
You might know that they're not genealogically likely,

1475
00:56:02.970 --> 00:56:04.567
it might be very hard for the tool to know that,

1476
00:56:04.567 --> 00:56:05.783
but you might know that.

1477
00:56:06.676 --> 00:56:08.220
'Cause you want to get the best results from this.

1478
00:56:08.220 --> 00:56:10.270
Or first of all, you want to have as many matches

1479
00:56:10.270 --> 00:56:12.860
in there as possible so that it doesn't create

1480
00:56:12.860 --> 00:56:14.230
too many hypotheses.

1481
00:56:14.230 --> 00:56:15.720
Like an unmanageable number.

1482
00:56:15.720 --> 00:56:17.900
And you want to get as many birth and death years in

1483
00:56:17.900 --> 00:56:19.873
as well just to guide it on it's way.

1484
00:56:21.060 --> 00:56:23.430
The suggested hypotheses look very slightly different

1485
00:56:23.430 --> 00:56:24.263
from the other ones.

1486
00:56:24.263 --> 00:56:25.963
They have a green border around them.

1487
00:56:27.410 --> 00:56:30.233
Honestly, it's a blessing and a curse, this feature.

1488
00:56:31.220 --> 00:56:32.960
On the one hand, how amazing.

1489
00:56:32.960 --> 00:56:34.274
You know you don't have to think

1490
00:56:34.274 --> 00:56:35.107
where could I fit?

1491
00:56:35.107 --> 00:56:37.430
You have to remember to put the half sibling in.

1492
00:56:37.430 --> 00:56:39.230
That's really great.

1493
00:56:39.230 --> 00:56:40.860
But, bear in mind that "What Are the Odds?"

1494
00:56:40.860 --> 00:56:43.440
is gonna try and explore every possibility.

1495
00:56:43.440 --> 00:56:45.550
So it's gonna be adding siblings,

1496
00:56:45.550 --> 00:56:47.963
unknown siblings, all over the place.

1497
00:56:49.270 --> 00:56:51.130
It's also gonna potentially consider

1498
00:56:51.130 --> 00:56:52.550
very young parent ages.

1499
00:56:52.550 --> 00:56:55.211
So in this example here we have a target

1500
00:56:55.211 --> 00:56:56.865
born in 1990.

1501
00:56:56.865 --> 00:56:58.170
And WATO is saying well,

1502
00:56:58.170 --> 00:57:00.230
the great grandparent could be this person

1503
00:57:00.230 --> 00:57:01.760
born in 1951

1504
00:57:01.760 --> 00:57:05.080
because maybe there was a succession of births aged 13.

1505
00:57:05.080 --> 00:57:07.790
Now, in reality that isn't that likely.

1506
00:57:07.790 --> 00:57:09.602
I'm hoping in future we might be able

1507
00:57:09.602 --> 00:57:12.530
to incorporate the likelihood of that

1508
00:57:12.530 --> 00:57:14.240
into the tool.

1509
00:57:14.240 --> 00:57:16.133
That's a work in progress obviously.

1510
00:57:17.430 --> 00:57:18.950
So just to repeat.

1511
00:57:18.950 --> 00:57:22.140
The hypothesis that is most mathematically likely

1512
00:57:22.140 --> 00:57:24.560
might actually not be the correct one.

1513
00:57:24.560 --> 00:57:26.200
And to illustrate this point,

1514
00:57:26.200 --> 00:57:28.160
I created a "What Are the Odds?" tree.

1515
00:57:28.160 --> 00:57:30.320
I added the centimorgan amounts

1516
00:57:30.320 --> 00:57:32.640
that I share with two different cousins

1517
00:57:32.640 --> 00:57:35.430
and I clicked that button generate hypotheses,

1518
00:57:35.430 --> 00:57:38.867
and "What Are the Odds?" created some imaginary people

1519
00:57:38.867 --> 00:57:40.930
who it ranked much higher than me.

1520
00:57:40.930 --> 00:57:44.370
So the top hypothesis was an unknown half sibling.

1521
00:57:44.370 --> 00:57:45.767
And they had a grandchild I think.

1522
00:57:45.767 --> 00:57:48.340
I mean I can't blame "What Are the Odds?" for doing this.

1523
00:57:48.340 --> 00:57:49.173
It's not wrong.

1524
00:57:49.173 --> 00:57:50.970
This is exactly what it's trying to do.

1525
00:57:51.810 --> 00:57:53.570
So it's just worth bearing in mind

1526
00:57:53.570 --> 00:57:56.993
that the position where you actually reside in a tree,

1527
00:57:56.993 --> 00:57:59.960
might not be the most mathematically likely

1528
00:57:59.960 --> 00:58:02.237
place where you might have resided in the tree.

1529
00:58:02.237 --> 00:58:03.770
That's a long sentence, isn't it?

1530
00:58:03.770 --> 00:58:05.020
But hopefully it's clear.

1531
00:58:06.010 --> 00:58:07.990
If you don't like the hypotheses,

1532
00:58:07.990 --> 00:58:09.770
you can obviously remove them just like any other one.

1533
00:58:09.770 --> 00:58:13.050
You can hover and click that remove hypothesis button

1534
00:58:13.050 --> 00:58:17.260
or you can remove all of the suggested hypotheses at once

1535
00:58:17.260 --> 00:58:18.580
by just clicking this button.

1536
00:58:18.580 --> 00:58:20.391
So, fear not.

1537
00:58:20.391 --> 00:58:21.530
I'm not gonna mess up your tree.

1538
00:58:21.530 --> 00:58:23.820
I'm hopefully gonna help.

1539
00:58:23.820 --> 00:58:26.540
There are also some usability improvements

1540
00:58:26.540 --> 00:58:30.260
that I hope will elucidate what the tool is doing.

1541
00:58:30.260 --> 00:58:32.430
Big one for me that I actually only finished

1542
00:58:32.430 --> 00:58:35.020
a couple of days before this presentation,

1543
00:58:35.020 --> 00:58:37.340
is if you hover over a score,

1544
00:58:37.340 --> 00:58:38.590
you can see more information

1545
00:58:38.590 --> 00:58:41.030
about what that score means right there.

1546
00:58:41.030 --> 00:58:43.177
So that's helpful.

1547
00:58:43.177 --> 00:58:45.200
And if you want to see that score in context

1548
00:58:45.200 --> 00:58:46.590
among the other hypotheses,

1549
00:58:46.590 --> 00:58:47.577
you can click on the score,

1550
00:58:47.577 --> 00:58:50.520
and it will scroll you down the page.

1551
00:58:50.520 --> 00:58:52.670
There are many other usability improvements I believe.

1552
00:58:52.670 --> 00:58:53.680
I can't remember what they are.

1553
00:58:53.680 --> 00:58:55.350
So you'll have to just try the tool out

1554
00:58:55.350 --> 00:58:56.650
and enjoy them.

1555
00:58:56.650 --> 00:58:58.750
One other use I wanted to mention

1556
00:58:58.750 --> 00:59:01.310
which has come along with the GEDCOM import

1557
00:59:01.310 --> 00:59:02.400
is if, like me,

1558
00:59:02.400 --> 00:59:03.360
you are fanatically

1559
00:59:05.046 --> 00:59:05.879
what should I say,

1560
00:59:05.879 --> 00:59:08.300
an ardent genealogist,

1561
00:59:08.300 --> 00:59:10.660
you will be someone who takes a lot of pride

1562
00:59:10.660 --> 00:59:12.810
in researching collateral lines.

1563
00:59:12.810 --> 00:59:15.370
So, all the descendants have siblings

1564
00:59:15.370 --> 00:59:17.080
of the ancestors as well.

1565
00:59:17.080 --> 00:59:18.160
And while testing this tool

1566
00:59:18.160 --> 00:59:20.160
I found all kinds of people where I couldn't really

1567
00:59:20.160 --> 00:59:22.180
see why I hadn't researched them further

1568
00:59:22.180 --> 00:59:23.690
to find descendants.

1569
00:59:23.690 --> 00:59:24.523
I don't have James Terrey there.

1570
00:59:24.523 --> 00:59:27.350
Maybe he wasn't in the census in the U.K.

1571
00:59:27.350 --> 00:59:29.640
But why have I not tried to trace him forward?

1572
00:59:29.640 --> 00:59:32.030
So I actually spent a couple of days importing

1573
00:59:32.030 --> 00:59:35.730
a GEDCOM, choosing a random ancestor or sibling

1574
00:59:35.730 --> 00:59:37.150
of an ancestor,

1575
00:59:37.150 --> 00:59:39.350
and seeing any massive holes in the tree

1576
00:59:39.350 --> 00:59:41.720
in terms of the width of my tree.

1577
00:59:41.720 --> 00:59:44.040
So you know, however you get your kicks,

1578
00:59:44.040 --> 00:59:45.140
that's how I got mine.

1579
00:59:46.080 --> 00:59:49.730
Okay, so we're nearing the final hurdle here.

1580
00:59:49.730 --> 00:59:50.677
To recap.

1581
00:59:50.677 --> 00:59:53.050
"What Are the Odds?" is a free tool.

1582
00:59:53.050 --> 00:59:54.435
It's available at my website,

1583
00:59:54.435 --> 00:59:56.190
DNApainter.com.

1584
00:59:56.190 --> 00:59:59.130
And it can help you disprove hypotheses.

1585
00:59:59.130 --> 01:00:01.010
I've put that first 'cause I think

1586
01:00:01.010 --> 01:00:02.440
that's one of the things it's best at.

1587
01:00:02.440 --> 01:00:04.180
It's best at telling you that something

1588
01:00:04.180 --> 01:00:07.350
is not statistically possible with the amounts

1589
01:00:07.350 --> 01:00:08.240
and the tree as entered.

1590
01:00:08.240 --> 01:00:10.950
It's not possible I was in Los Angeles

1591
01:00:10.950 --> 01:00:13.250
going back to my analogy earlier.

1592
01:00:13.250 --> 01:00:14.962
And sometimes it's not possible

1593
01:00:14.962 --> 01:00:16.340
that you're in a certain place in the tree

1594
01:00:16.340 --> 01:00:18.350
because of the DNA that you share with other people

1595
01:00:18.350 --> 01:00:19.183
in the tree.

1596
01:00:20.500 --> 01:00:22.050
It's great for visualizing

1597
01:00:22.050 --> 01:00:24.670
and sharing connections efficiently.

1598
01:00:24.670 --> 01:00:25.930
I think there's a few of us

1599
01:00:25.930 --> 01:00:28.572
who've been regularly using this since it was built

1600
01:00:28.572 --> 01:00:31.580
to show DNA matches,

1601
01:00:31.580 --> 01:00:32.413
how you connect to them.

1602
01:00:32.413 --> 01:00:34.540
So there are kind of useful opening gambit

1603
01:00:34.540 --> 01:00:36.710
to write to someone to try and tease

1604
01:00:36.710 --> 01:00:37.543
more information out of them.

1605
01:00:37.543 --> 01:00:38.376
It's to say hey,

1606
01:00:38.376 --> 01:00:40.540
well there's a lot of trees just showing our connection,

1607
01:00:40.540 --> 01:00:42.033
you know, tell me more.

1608
01:00:44.060 --> 01:00:46.670
Ultimately I'm hoping the tool can help you close in

1609
01:00:46.670 --> 01:00:47.993
on your family history.

1610
01:00:49.340 --> 01:00:51.297
I think overall the main thing I get out

1611
01:00:51.297 --> 01:00:52.940
of "What Are the Odds?" is it makes me feel

1612
01:00:52.940 --> 01:00:54.740
a bit more calm.

1613
01:00:54.740 --> 01:00:57.500
Sometimes when I'm working with my DNA matches,

1614
01:00:57.500 --> 01:00:58.862
I'm frenetic.

1615
01:00:58.862 --> 01:01:01.150
I'm on all the different testing sites at once,

1616
01:01:01.150 --> 01:01:02.220
I'm gathering information,

1617
01:01:02.220 --> 01:01:04.060
I'm copying and pasting.

1618
01:01:04.060 --> 01:01:06.470
Have a million Evernotes open at once.

1619
01:01:06.470 --> 01:01:09.770
When I use "What Are the Odds?" I feel a bit calmer.

1620
01:01:09.770 --> 01:01:12.660
I'm putting everything together in one place.

1621
01:01:12.660 --> 01:01:13.890
I'm clarifying my thoughts.

1622
01:01:13.890 --> 01:01:16.380
And I'm actually getting somewhere.

1623
01:01:16.380 --> 01:01:17.437
So that's why I like it.

1624
01:01:17.437 --> 01:01:18.810
Obviously I'm biased,

1625
01:01:18.810 --> 01:01:21.340
but I hope you like it too.

1626
01:01:21.340 --> 01:01:22.700
Thank you very much for listening.

1627
01:01:22.700 --> 01:01:25.530
I hope this has been informative.

1628
01:01:25.530 --> 01:01:27.400
I hope I didn't speak too quickly.

1629
01:01:27.400 --> 01:01:29.253
And thanks very much.

1630
01:01:34.660 --> 01:01:35.870
<v Geoff>How perfect Jonny.</v>

1631
01:01:35.870 --> 01:01:37.830
And here in the audience

1632
01:01:39.110 --> 01:01:41.530
they're thanking you too.

1633
01:01:41.530 --> 01:01:44.770
Hundreds of comments and questions here.

1634
01:01:44.770 --> 01:01:48.610
And it looks as if many here in the audience

1635
01:01:48.610 --> 01:01:51.940
have used this and because of the responses

1636
01:01:51.940 --> 01:01:54.320
to what you've just shown us here in the beta,

1637
01:01:54.320 --> 01:01:58.160
Jonny, I just added a question,

1638
01:01:58.160 --> 01:02:00.983
a private question in your chat area.

1639
01:02:01.960 --> 01:02:03.920
Could you look for that in the,

1640
01:02:03.920 --> 01:02:05.830
your go to webinar control panel?

1641
01:02:05.830 --> 01:02:07.060
While you're looking for that

1642
01:02:07.060 --> 01:02:09.050
I'm gonna ask the audience,

1643
01:02:09.050 --> 01:02:12.470
because I'm curious to know,

1644
01:02:12.470 --> 01:02:14.550
how many of the audience who is here

1645
01:02:14.550 --> 01:02:18.340
have used "What Are the Odds?" tool previously?

1646
01:02:18.340 --> 01:02:21.233
And, oh go ahead.

1647
01:02:23.600 --> 01:02:27.000
Okay, so have you used WATO?

1648
01:02:27.000 --> 01:02:29.300
So just say yes or not yet.

1649
01:02:29.300 --> 01:02:33.170
Curious to know just if

1650
01:02:33.170 --> 01:02:34.810
what the percentage here

1651
01:02:34.810 --> 01:02:37.540
of the viewing audience has used this,

1652
01:02:37.540 --> 01:02:42.540
and I'll share this result with all of you here shortly.

1653
01:02:43.160 --> 01:02:46.990
Yeah just click on that instead of in a chat area,

1654
01:02:46.990 --> 01:02:49.100
everyone just click on the option

1655
01:02:49.100 --> 01:02:50.580
there on your screen.

1656
01:02:50.580 --> 01:02:53.010
Okay, so I'm going to close it

1657
01:02:53.010 --> 01:02:55.320
and let's take a look at it.

1658
01:02:55.320 --> 01:02:57.160
And so, it looks Jonny,

1659
01:02:57.160 --> 01:02:57.993
look at this.

1660
01:02:57.993 --> 01:03:01.000
About 1/3 of the viewing audience here today.

1661
01:03:01.000 --> 01:03:04.020
So of the thousand attendees here today,

1662
01:03:04.020 --> 01:03:05.530
so about,

1663
01:03:05.530 --> 01:03:08.460
about 340 of the viewing audience

1664
01:03:10.080 --> 01:03:11.800
they have used this.

1665
01:03:11.800 --> 01:03:13.760
And the rest are new to this.

1666
01:03:13.760 --> 01:03:16.290
And so Jonny, we have a tradition here

1667
01:03:16.290 --> 01:03:21.070
at Family Tree Webinars where we

1668
01:03:21.070 --> 01:03:23.910
like to crash other people's websites

1669
01:03:23.910 --> 01:03:25.880
during our live webinar.

1670
01:03:25.880 --> 01:03:29.693
But, so I hope that yours is doing well right now.

1671
01:03:31.690 --> 01:03:32.530
<v ->Yeah that hasn't happened.</v>
<v ->So I'll go</v>

1672
01:03:32.530 --> 01:03:36.147
66% of you that have not used this yet--

1673
01:03:36.147 --> 01:03:37.020
<v Jonny>I just went on there.</v>

1674
01:03:37.020 --> 01:03:38.520
<v Geoff>So this is exciting.</v>

1675
01:03:40.300 --> 01:03:42.683
Okay, so I hear it's still up.

1676
01:03:43.710 --> 01:03:44.543
Okay good.

1677
01:03:45.420 --> 01:03:46.630
So it sounds like it's at least

1678
01:03:46.630 --> 01:03:49.450
got a real good, stable, tough connection there.

1679
01:03:49.450 --> 01:03:52.083
Well, Jonny, thanks for responding there.

1680
01:03:52.920 --> 01:03:55.440
Would you like to do that over on your computer

1681
01:03:55.440 --> 01:03:56.604
or on mine?

1682
01:03:56.604 --> 01:03:57.695
<v Jonny>I try my best.</v>

1683
01:03:57.695 --> 01:03:58.780
(talking over each other)

1684
01:03:58.780 --> 01:03:59.770
If that works for you.

1685
01:03:59.770 --> 01:04:02.610
<v Geoff>Jonny's got his screen</v>

1686
01:04:02.610 --> 01:04:03.930
and I've actually...

1687
01:04:06.310 --> 01:04:07.143
Good, yeah.

1688
01:04:07.143 --> 01:04:08.050
Go ahead.

1689
01:04:08.050 --> 01:04:10.010
I've asked Jonny to do a simple case study

1690
01:04:10.010 --> 01:04:13.370
on the live website to just walk us through

1691
01:04:13.370 --> 01:04:15.800
what it looks like live.

1692
01:04:15.800 --> 01:04:17.283
So go ahead Jonny, thank you.

1693
01:04:23.260 --> 01:04:24.093
<v Jonny>Okay.</v>

1694
01:04:24.093 --> 01:04:25.170
Well this is exciting as well.

1695
01:04:25.170 --> 01:04:27.740
I'm gonna try and place myself on a tree here.

1696
01:04:27.740 --> 01:04:29.770
So the first thing I need to do

1697
01:04:29.770 --> 01:04:31.915
is well, I tell you what I'm gonna do.

1698
01:04:31.915 --> 01:04:33.370
I'm gonna show you all my nice little tips overlay.

1699
01:04:33.370 --> 01:04:35.070
Because it can be hard to remember

1700
01:04:36.240 --> 01:04:37.553
everything at once, right?

1701
01:04:37.553 --> 01:04:40.190
So when you, if you forget some aspect

1702
01:04:40.190 --> 01:04:41.023
of how to use the site,

1703
01:04:41.023 --> 01:04:42.590
if you click on Show tips,

1704
01:04:42.590 --> 01:04:45.340
it will actually give you a quick recap

1705
01:04:45.340 --> 01:04:48.200
of some of the key points of my talk there.

1706
01:04:48.200 --> 01:04:50.530
So I'm gonna click out of that.

1707
01:04:50.530 --> 01:04:51.400
Excuse me.

1708
01:04:51.400 --> 01:04:54.220
And, I'm gonna just add myself I guess.

1709
01:04:54.220 --> 01:04:55.810
So I'm gonna say I am a target.

1710
01:04:55.810 --> 01:04:56.643
So I'm gonna click on here.

1711
01:04:56.643 --> 01:04:57.883
I'm gonna type Jonny.

1712
01:04:58.850 --> 01:05:00.410
I'm gonna put my birth year,

1713
01:05:00.410 --> 01:05:02.550
which was 1974.

1714
01:05:02.550 --> 01:05:04.730
And then I'm gonna build a simple tree.

1715
01:05:04.730 --> 01:05:06.840
I'm gonna do that because if I import a GEDCOM,

1716
01:05:06.840 --> 01:05:09.376
it's theoretically possible that for a second

1717
01:05:09.376 --> 01:05:14.280
I might be breaking someone else's privacy

1718
01:05:14.280 --> 01:05:16.790
and I don't want to show whose name (mumbles).

1719
01:05:16.790 --> 01:05:21.170
Let's just say who was my father?

1720
01:05:21.170 --> 01:05:23.120
And I'm gonna build a very simple tree.

1721
01:05:23.980 --> 01:05:27.470
So if we go up to my great grandparents say.

1722
01:05:27.470 --> 01:05:30.720
So here it says most recent common ancestor or couple.

1723
01:05:30.720 --> 01:05:32.870
I'm gonna click on that and I'm gonna write

1724
01:05:33.780 --> 01:05:38.729
my great grandparents on my paternal grandmother's side.

1725
01:05:38.729 --> 01:05:40.210
I think I'm putting myself on the spot here.

1726
01:05:40.210 --> 01:05:43.030
So they were called JVC Jones

1727
01:05:43.030 --> 01:05:46.980
and F J Cooper.

1728
01:05:46.980 --> 01:05:48.670
So I have added them in.

1729
01:05:48.670 --> 01:05:50.075
You see that it abbreviates it

1730
01:05:50.075 --> 01:05:51.190
just to fit it inside of a box.

1731
01:05:51.190 --> 01:05:53.850
Then when I hover, I can see the whole thing.

1732
01:05:53.850 --> 01:05:56.960
And I'm gonna add some children for them.

1733
01:05:56.960 --> 01:05:59.500
So they had, how many children did they have?

1734
01:05:59.500 --> 01:06:00.333
Three children.

1735
01:06:01.170 --> 01:06:02.200
So they had O,

1736
01:06:05.880 --> 01:06:07.413
they had V,

1737
01:06:08.710 --> 01:06:12.340
and they had Enid, who was my grandmother.

1738
01:06:12.340 --> 01:06:13.173
Okay?

1739
01:06:13.173 --> 01:06:17.440
Now, I have tested someone here.

1740
01:06:17.440 --> 01:06:21.330
And I know that I share 378 centimorgans of DNA with him.

1741
01:06:21.330 --> 01:06:22.700
Sorry, I should be talking this through.

1742
01:06:22.700 --> 01:06:25.650
So if I hover over my father's cousin here

1743
01:06:25.650 --> 01:06:28.270
and I click into match centimorgans,

1744
01:06:28.270 --> 01:06:30.010
I can enter the 378.

1745
01:06:30.010 --> 01:06:31.660
I can hit return.

1746
01:06:31.660 --> 01:06:33.600
And we can see that a child there,

1747
01:06:33.600 --> 01:06:36.980
I share 378 centimorgans with him.

1748
01:06:36.980 --> 01:06:39.960
And then I also tested someone here.

1749
01:06:39.960 --> 01:06:42.643
So here I'm going to add my father.

1750
01:06:44.860 --> 01:06:47.763
And I'm also gonna add his half brother.

1751
01:06:49.250 --> 01:06:51.100
So I need to indicate that these two people

1752
01:06:51.100 --> 01:06:53.680
are half siblings so I'm gonna hover over

1753
01:06:53.680 --> 01:06:55.200
my father's node.

1754
01:06:55.200 --> 01:06:58.600
I'm gonna click define half relationships.

1755
01:06:58.600 --> 01:07:02.330
And I'm gonna check his brother as a half sibling.

1756
01:07:02.330 --> 01:07:04.860
And there he is with a half sibling.

1757
01:07:04.860 --> 01:07:06.370
Now I've tested this half sibling.

1758
01:07:06.370 --> 01:07:08.883
None of you will be surprised to hear that.

1759
01:07:08.883 --> 01:07:12.730
And from memory I think I share,

1760
01:07:12.730 --> 01:07:13.863
what is it?

1761
01:07:13.863 --> 01:07:16.420
1050 centimorgans of DNA I think.

1762
01:07:16.420 --> 01:07:17.690
So let's put that in.

1763
01:07:17.690 --> 01:07:18.923
Quite a strong match.

1764
01:07:20.490 --> 01:07:23.699
Okay, so I'm gonna press this SUGGEST HYPOTHESES button

1765
01:07:23.699 --> 01:07:25.525
and I'm gonna see what happens.

1766
01:07:25.525 --> 01:07:26.625
Okay, I'm a brave man.

1767
01:07:27.560 --> 01:07:29.290
So there we go.

1768
01:07:29.290 --> 01:07:32.370
Okay, it suggested 10 hypotheses for me.

1769
01:07:32.370 --> 01:07:33.703
So I'm gonna scroll down.

1770
01:07:35.404 --> 01:07:37.657
Okay, that's a a dot hypothesis.

1771
01:07:37.657 --> 01:07:39.840
But it suggested that because it doesn't know

1772
01:07:39.840 --> 01:07:41.350
how old any of these people are.

1773
01:07:41.350 --> 01:07:42.610
I didn't put any ages in

1774
01:07:42.610 --> 01:07:44.049
before I did this.

1775
01:07:44.049 --> 01:07:45.520
And that was a silly thing to do, wasn't it?

1776
01:07:45.520 --> 01:07:47.110
How about if I put some ages in?

1777
01:07:47.110 --> 01:07:49.820
So my father was born in 1940.

1778
01:07:54.480 --> 01:07:58.993
And my uncle, he was born in 1952.

1779
01:08:02.083 --> 01:08:03.240
So if I put that information in

1780
01:08:03.240 --> 01:08:04.580
it changes things somewhat, doesn't it?

1781
01:08:04.580 --> 01:08:07.283
Why don't I remove or regenerate those hypotheses?

1782
01:08:08.140 --> 01:08:09.196
Okay, look at that.

1783
01:08:09.196 --> 01:08:10.670
It's still giving me this crazy hypothesis.

1784
01:08:10.670 --> 01:08:12.370
I told everyone this is a beta, didn't I?

1785
01:08:12.370 --> 01:08:14.190
So this is a daft situation.

1786
01:08:14.190 --> 01:08:15.023
I can't be there.

1787
01:08:15.023 --> 01:08:17.220
So I'm gonna remove that hypothesis.

1788
01:08:17.220 --> 01:08:19.920
I can't be there, so I'm gonna remove that hypothesis.

1789
01:08:21.812 --> 01:08:25.070
However, I could potentially be here.

1790
01:08:26.020 --> 01:08:30.610
So the top hypothesis here is me.

1791
01:08:30.610 --> 01:08:32.990
I am the son of my father.

1792
01:08:32.990 --> 01:08:35.910
And I could also be the son of another unknown sibling.

1793
01:08:35.910 --> 01:08:37.430
So that's what "What Are the Odds?" has told me

1794
01:08:37.430 --> 01:08:38.407
in this case.

1795
01:08:38.407 --> 01:08:41.393
Now could I be the son of my father's half brother?

1796
01:08:42.470 --> 01:08:43.960
I could not.

1797
01:08:43.960 --> 01:08:46.170
Okay, so that's my very simple demo.

1798
01:08:46.170 --> 01:08:48.020
Does that fit the bill for you Geoff?

1799
01:08:54.060 --> 01:08:55.730
<v Geoff>Very good, thank you so much.</v>

1800
01:08:55.730 --> 01:08:59.489
Yeah, it's really helpful to see it perform

1801
01:08:59.489 --> 01:09:01.490
live just like that.

1802
01:09:01.490 --> 01:09:04.205
Well I'm gonna switch over to my computer here

1803
01:09:04.205 --> 01:09:07.060
and let's do some door prizes

1804
01:09:07.060 --> 01:09:09.790
and I've got just a couple of quick announcements

1805
01:09:09.790 --> 01:09:12.020
and then I will get back to questions.

1806
01:09:12.020 --> 01:09:15.470
Many of you have asked if this recording

1807
01:09:15.470 --> 01:09:17.890
will be available afterwards.

1808
01:09:17.890 --> 01:09:20.190
And yes, absolutely it sure will.

1809
01:09:20.190 --> 01:09:22.820
I'll have it online within a couple of hours

1810
01:09:22.820 --> 01:09:24.080
after we conclude here today.

1811
01:09:24.080 --> 01:09:26.070
So go there and view it again.

1812
01:09:26.070 --> 01:09:28.080
Share it with your friends, family,

1813
01:09:28.080 --> 01:09:29.410
genealogist society,

1814
01:09:29.410 --> 01:09:33.920
and whomever you think would benefit from this.

1815
01:09:33.920 --> 01:09:35.380
It will be in the free area

1816
01:09:35.380 --> 01:09:38.520
and we'll keep it in the free area indefinitely.

1817
01:09:38.520 --> 01:09:42.130
So thanks to Jonny for letting us do that.

1818
01:09:42.130 --> 01:09:43.720
If you're a webinar member,

1819
01:09:43.720 --> 01:09:47.070
then you also have unlimited access to

1820
01:09:47.070 --> 01:09:52.070
1268 classes there in the library now

1821
01:09:52.130 --> 01:09:56.040
as well as more than 5000 pages of syllabus materials.

1822
01:09:56.040 --> 01:09:59.180
And I'll give you your 10% off coupon code

1823
01:10:00.050 --> 01:10:01.900
real soon.

1824
01:10:01.900 --> 01:10:04.290
Let's go on to my next screen.

1825
01:10:04.290 --> 01:10:05.880
If you want more Jonny Perl,

1826
01:10:05.880 --> 01:10:07.800
he's coming up later this year.

1827
01:10:07.800 --> 01:10:09.720
Looks like December 2nd,

1828
01:10:09.720 --> 01:10:12.380
on Four Ways DNA Painter Can Help

1829
01:10:12.380 --> 01:10:14.610
with Your Family History.

1830
01:10:14.610 --> 01:10:18.120
And, well the June 3rd, that's today.

1831
01:10:18.120 --> 01:10:21.230
And then, also you've got the introduction

1832
01:10:21.230 --> 01:10:23.990
to DNA Painter that you can go and view.

1833
01:10:23.990 --> 01:10:26.470
So if today was brand new to you,

1834
01:10:26.470 --> 01:10:28.670
you may want to go over and watch

1835
01:10:28.670 --> 01:10:30.833
the other tool about DNA Painter there.

1836
01:10:31.722 --> 01:10:34.940
And that also is in the free area.

1837
01:10:34.940 --> 01:10:36.790
Oh, and you're welcome to all of you.

1838
01:10:37.930 --> 01:10:41.300
And more, there's more DNA in the library as well.

1839
01:10:41.300 --> 01:10:43.050
And well absolutely man,

1840
01:10:43.050 --> 01:10:44.410
go on and please do share it

1841
01:10:44.410 --> 01:10:46.130
to your genealogy Facebook groups.

1842
01:10:46.130 --> 01:10:46.963
You bet.

1843
01:10:49.060 --> 01:10:51.443
Ruth says she just uploaded

1844
01:10:51.443 --> 01:10:53.050
a GEDCOM into the new version.

1845
01:10:53.050 --> 01:10:54.700
She says WOW in all caps

1846
01:10:54.700 --> 01:10:57.173
and this is gonna be hugely useful.

1847
01:10:58.110 --> 01:11:00.470
Well good luck and have fun with that Ruth.

1848
01:11:00.470 --> 01:11:04.040
Okay, FamilyTreeWebinars.com/DNA.

1849
01:11:04.040 --> 01:11:07.370
Yeah there's a 150 courses up there right now

1850
01:11:08.370 --> 01:11:09.203
on DNA.

1851
01:11:09.203 --> 01:11:13.700
There's also a five class series on foundations of DNA

1852
01:11:13.700 --> 01:11:15.030
that was taught by Blaine Bettinger.

1853
01:11:15.030 --> 01:11:16.530
So if you're brand new to DNA

1854
01:11:16.530 --> 01:11:19.790
or you want a refresher,

1855
01:11:19.790 --> 01:11:21.490
then go and view that.

1856
01:11:21.490 --> 01:11:22.590
And also we heard that

1857
01:11:24.236 --> 01:11:27.780
new home for the classes of Genetic Genealogy Ireland

1858
01:11:27.780 --> 01:11:30.530
and that's an in person conference

1859
01:11:30.530 --> 01:11:32.470
that's held in Ireland

1860
01:11:32.470 --> 01:11:33.840
twice a year.

1861
01:11:33.840 --> 01:11:36.250
And so those classes are now online

1862
01:11:36.250 --> 01:11:37.540
with a webinar membership.

1863
01:11:37.540 --> 01:11:39.270
And thanks Sharon who says,

1864
01:11:39.270 --> 01:11:41.270
Legacy Webinars is without a doubt

1865
01:11:41.270 --> 01:11:43.483
the most valuable subscription that I have.

1866
01:11:43.483 --> 01:11:44.900
I do agree.

1867
01:11:44.900 --> 01:11:47.120
Okay, brand new in the webinar library.

1868
01:11:47.120 --> 01:11:50.500
If you haven't been here lately

1869
01:11:50.500 --> 01:11:52.350
or if this is your first time,

1870
01:11:52.350 --> 01:11:55.000
when you go onto the main website,

1871
01:11:55.000 --> 01:11:56.350
just scroll down just a little bit

1872
01:11:56.350 --> 01:11:58.430
and you'll see the new section

1873
01:11:58.430 --> 01:12:02.420
and this shows the last eight webinar recordings

1874
01:12:02.420 --> 01:12:03.253
that are available.

1875
01:12:03.253 --> 01:12:04.350
So just click on them

1876
01:12:04.350 --> 01:12:07.250
and they're available for free for the first week

1877
01:12:07.250 --> 01:12:08.700
and then after that,

1878
01:12:08.700 --> 01:12:10.693
they go behind that membership wall.

1879
01:12:11.810 --> 01:12:13.740
Also, new for this year,

1880
01:12:13.740 --> 01:12:15.150
is our TechZone.

1881
01:12:15.150 --> 01:12:17.220
So every Friday, and these are not live,

1882
01:12:17.220 --> 01:12:20.800
but every Friday we add a new video for you

1883
01:12:20.800 --> 01:12:22.010
if you're a webinar member.

1884
01:12:22.010 --> 01:12:24.010
This is free with your membership.

1885
01:12:24.010 --> 01:12:28.390
And last week's was Organize Your Bookmarks

1886
01:12:28.390 --> 01:12:29.640
in Google Chrome.

1887
01:12:29.640 --> 01:12:31.470
Eight minutes long and it helps you learn

1888
01:12:31.470 --> 01:12:34.730
how to organize those Chrome bookmarks.

1889
01:12:34.730 --> 01:12:36.510
Coming up this Friday,

1890
01:12:36.510 --> 01:12:38.210
Three Things that you can do with,

1891
01:12:40.290 --> 01:12:41.130
is that the right?

1892
01:12:41.130 --> 01:12:41.993
Yeah, I think so.

1893
01:12:43.370 --> 01:12:48.370
Marian, help me know,

1894
01:12:48.990 --> 01:12:50.720
will you verify that for me?

1895
01:12:50.720 --> 01:12:51.553
(Geoff laughs)

1896
01:12:51.553 --> 01:12:52.970
In my chat.

1897
01:12:52.970 --> 01:12:54.650
Three Things you can do with Adobe Spark.

1898
01:12:54.650 --> 01:12:57.173
I think one of these I might have off.

1899
01:12:59.270 --> 01:13:04.270
Yeah, Creating Videos with Adobe Spark is,

1900
01:13:04.420 --> 01:13:06.950
I don't know how I got that title mixed up there.

1901
01:13:06.950 --> 01:13:10.230
Anyways, if you want to know how to create videos

1902
01:13:11.090 --> 01:13:12.947
of really just anything,

1903
01:13:12.947 --> 01:13:15.680
you can learn about that from Cheri Hudson Passey

1904
01:13:15.680 --> 01:13:17.570
coming this Friday.

1905
01:13:17.570 --> 01:13:21.340
And also, you can learn from other speakers coming up.

1906
01:13:21.340 --> 01:13:25.150
We've got our next MyHeritage webinar next Tuesday.

1907
01:13:25.150 --> 01:13:27.270
We've got three unique case studies

1908
01:13:27.270 --> 01:13:29.840
by Gail Blankenau next Wednesday.

1909
01:13:29.840 --> 01:13:34.010
And then we're starting our quarterly Q&amp;A,

1910
01:13:34.010 --> 01:13:37.073
live Q&amp;A session with Diahan Southard.

1911
01:13:39.160 --> 01:13:41.130
That's coming up on June 12th.

1912
01:13:41.130 --> 01:13:43.560
So if you have DNA questions,

1913
01:13:43.560 --> 01:13:45.290
email them to me.

1914
01:13:45.290 --> 01:13:48.290
And perhaps Marian you can put my personal email address

1915
01:13:48.290 --> 01:13:50.303
there in the chat area as well.

1916
01:13:51.566 --> 01:13:52.670
So if you have a DNA question

1917
01:13:52.670 --> 01:13:56.340
that you hope that Diahan could answer,

1918
01:13:56.340 --> 01:13:57.310
that's what that is for.

1919
01:13:57.310 --> 01:13:58.920
Keep the questions shorter

1920
01:13:58.920 --> 01:14:01.800
and it's more likely to be responded to.

1921
01:14:01.800 --> 01:14:04.000
David Ouinette is our next speaker

1922
01:14:04.000 --> 01:14:06.520
for the BCG webinar series.

1923
01:14:06.520 --> 01:14:08.100
So if you've got Irish ancestors,

1924
01:14:08.100 --> 01:14:09.090
you're in luck.

1925
01:14:09.090 --> 01:14:12.070
And then Josh Taylor will be back on the 17th

1926
01:14:12.070 --> 01:14:15.080
for Finding Ancestors in the U.S. between

1927
01:14:15.080 --> 01:14:17.723
1780 and 1840.

1928
01:14:19.002 --> 01:14:21.260
Oh good Kathy, I'm glad to hear that.

1929
01:14:21.260 --> 01:14:22.880
She says, yeah the webinar membership

1930
01:14:22.880 --> 01:14:23.713
is worth buying.

1931
01:14:23.713 --> 01:14:25.780
I've been getting a lot of use out of it

1932
01:14:25.780 --> 01:14:27.440
now that I'm working from home.

1933
01:14:27.440 --> 01:14:30.140
The tech ones are helpful for work as well

1934
01:14:30.140 --> 01:14:31.003
as for genealogy.

1935
01:14:31.003 --> 01:14:33.510
Oh, and you can count those towards your work hours?

1936
01:14:33.510 --> 01:14:34.993
Wow, that's kinda neat.

1937
01:14:35.998 --> 01:14:38.830
Okay, also neat are door prize time.

1938
01:14:38.830 --> 01:14:40.437
Okay, first door prize here today.

1939
01:14:40.437 --> 01:14:44.060
"Kindred Voices, Listening for our Ancestors".

1940
01:14:44.060 --> 01:14:47.850
This is available as a PDF in our online store.

1941
01:14:47.850 --> 01:14:49.420
And I'll say congratulations

1942
01:14:49.420 --> 01:14:51.170
to John Vetcher.

1943
01:14:53.860 --> 01:14:56.310
I'll be sending you an email.

1944
01:14:56.310 --> 01:14:59.147
All right, next we'll go to

1945
01:14:59.147 --> 01:15:01.260
"Foundations in DNA,"

1946
01:15:01.260 --> 01:15:05.010
this is the first of the five class series.

1947
01:15:05.010 --> 01:15:07.140
If you're a webinar member you do already

1948
01:15:07.140 --> 01:15:09.180
have access to this.

1949
01:15:09.180 --> 01:15:12.090
If not, will you look for that hand raising button

1950
01:15:12.090 --> 01:15:14.280
in your webinar control panel,

1951
01:15:14.280 --> 01:15:15.930
and click on that hand button

1952
01:15:15.930 --> 01:15:19.860
if this is something that you're hoping to win today.

1953
01:15:19.860 --> 01:15:24.400
And I'll go and have this randomly pick a winner.

1954
01:15:24.400 --> 01:15:28.580
All right, oh names keep on moving.

1955
01:15:28.580 --> 01:15:32.480
Janet Van Cleeve, our winner for this.

1956
01:15:32.480 --> 01:15:34.070
Janet, congrats.

1957
01:15:34.070 --> 01:15:36.580
And I'm just writing down your names

1958
01:15:36.580 --> 01:15:38.770
so I can remember who you are later on.

1959
01:15:38.770 --> 01:15:42.490
All right, we'll next go to "Legacy Family Tree" software.

1960
01:15:42.490 --> 01:15:45.520
So I'll put your hands down if you want this.

1961
01:15:45.520 --> 01:15:47.513
Click on that hand raising button.

1962
01:15:48.414 --> 01:15:51.000
And, if you end up being the winner,

1963
01:15:51.000 --> 01:15:53.490
well you're welcome to give it to a friend

1964
01:15:53.490 --> 01:15:54.340
if you'd like to.

1965
01:15:55.200 --> 01:15:56.303
All right.

1966
01:15:59.090 --> 01:16:02.760
Janet, a different Janet.

1967
01:16:02.760 --> 01:16:05.320
Janet, I was thinking that it was the same person.

1968
01:16:05.320 --> 01:16:06.523
Janet Madina.

1969
01:16:08.680 --> 01:16:11.020
Well we've got three J's as winners here today.

1970
01:16:11.020 --> 01:16:13.250
Let's try to mix that up a little I hope.

1971
01:16:13.250 --> 01:16:14.747
Okay, Janet Elason,

1972
01:16:15.950 --> 01:16:17.700
congrats, you're the winner

1973
01:16:17.700 --> 01:16:20.260
of "Legacy Family Tree" software.

1974
01:16:20.260 --> 01:16:23.890
And let's finally go to one free month

1975
01:16:23.890 --> 01:16:25.403
of Family Tree Webinars.

1976
01:16:27.020 --> 01:16:28.230
I totally agree.

1977
01:16:28.230 --> 01:16:32.683
I mean, the $49.95 a year for all of that,

1978
01:16:35.410 --> 01:16:36.850
probably oughta increase that price.

1979
01:16:36.850 --> 01:16:40.300
But, we'll try to keep it right where it's at

1980
01:16:40.300 --> 01:16:41.750
for as long as I can.

1981
01:16:41.750 --> 01:16:45.560
All right, and well there's a 10% off code too

1982
01:16:45.560 --> 01:16:46.393
right there.

1983
01:16:46.393 --> 01:16:49.020
Odds, I'll show that in my next slide.

1984
01:16:49.020 --> 01:16:51.863
But, let's find out who our winner for this is.

1985
01:16:57.080 --> 01:16:59.490
Alice Lincoln Sloane.

1986
01:16:59.490 --> 01:17:04.073
If that's your name, my guess is there's only one of you.

1987
01:17:05.450 --> 01:17:06.610
You're our winner.

1988
01:17:06.610 --> 01:17:07.730
Watch for an email.

1989
01:17:07.730 --> 01:17:09.670
I'll send you a free month.

1990
01:17:09.670 --> 01:17:10.530
Well, fun.

1991
01:17:10.530 --> 01:17:12.760
Okay, yeah there's that code everyone.

1992
01:17:12.760 --> 01:17:13.593
At all button.

1993
01:17:13.593 --> 01:17:16.960
Thanks Marian for putting this code in the links

1994
01:17:16.960 --> 01:17:18.550
in the chat area.

1995
01:17:18.550 --> 01:17:21.000
So the word "odds,"

1996
01:17:21.000 --> 01:17:24.561
that's good through this coming Monday, June 8th.

1997
01:17:24.561 --> 01:17:25.394
Just put that in at check out

1998
01:17:25.394 --> 01:17:30.390
and you can get that discount on Legacy software,

1999
01:17:30.390 --> 01:17:31.390
webinar membership,

2000
01:17:31.390 --> 01:17:33.083
and more up there.

2001
01:17:39.940 --> 01:17:40.790
Okay, here we go.

2002
01:17:40.790 --> 01:17:42.970
Let's invite Jonny back on here.

2003
01:17:42.970 --> 01:17:46.020
Jonny, are you still there

2004
01:17:46.940 --> 01:17:48.320
all the way in London, England?

2005
01:17:48.320 --> 01:17:49.764
We've got a few questions for you.

2006
01:17:49.764 --> 01:17:51.238
<v Jonny>I haven't got anywhere.</v>

2007
01:17:51.238 --> 01:17:52.071
I'm here.

2008
01:17:52.910 --> 01:17:53.910
<v Geoff>All right.</v>

2009
01:17:58.280 --> 01:17:59.333
Okay, good.

2010
01:18:00.250 --> 01:18:02.250
Jonny, I notice there's a little bit of a lag

2011
01:18:02.250 --> 01:18:05.780
between when I voice a question and when you respond,

2012
01:18:05.780 --> 01:18:09.920
and so we'll just keep that in mind as,

2013
01:18:09.920 --> 01:18:11.850
so I don't interrupt you here.

2014
01:18:11.850 --> 01:18:14.680
But let's go to Rhonda's question

2015
01:18:14.680 --> 01:18:18.070
who says is there a limit to the amount,

2016
01:18:18.070 --> 01:18:21.520
to the number of saved trees that you can have

2017
01:18:21.520 --> 01:18:23.743
as a non-subscriber?

2018
01:18:26.000 --> 01:18:27.300
<v Jonny>No, there isn't at the moment.</v>

2019
01:18:27.300 --> 01:18:29.793
I mean, I've vaguely thought about that

2020
01:18:29.793 --> 01:18:32.270
because the trees may start getting bigger

2021
01:18:32.270 --> 01:18:35.240
now that the people can import GEDCOM files.

2022
01:18:35.240 --> 01:18:37.293
But the answer is not at this time.

2023
01:18:38.160 --> 01:18:39.730
If things go totally crazy,

2024
01:18:39.730 --> 01:18:42.260
I might put a limit on it in future.

2025
01:18:42.260 --> 01:18:44.877
But, no, there's not.

2026
01:18:49.730 --> 01:18:50.970
<v Geoff>Oh, very good okay.</v>

2027
01:18:50.970 --> 01:18:52.100
Thank you.

2028
01:18:52.100 --> 01:18:55.890
Let's go to Corinne's question

2029
01:18:55.890 --> 01:18:59.150
and this was part of your first case study.

2030
01:18:59.150 --> 01:19:00.700
She's curious.

2031
01:19:00.700 --> 01:19:03.393
Did he get to eventually meet his father?

2032
01:19:04.920 --> 01:19:07.000
<v Jonny>His father was deceased</v>

2033
01:19:07.000 --> 01:19:09.750
and alas there were also some half siblings

2034
01:19:09.750 --> 01:19:10.690
who were also deceased.

2035
01:19:10.690 --> 01:19:13.850
But, he has connected with cousins.

2036
01:19:13.850 --> 01:19:15.410
I mean I guess I didn't really talk about this,

2037
01:19:15.410 --> 01:19:17.783
but one does have to tread very carefully when doing

2038
01:19:17.783 --> 01:19:18.630
this kind of thing.

2039
01:19:18.630 --> 01:19:20.810
I had two really happy outcomes

2040
01:19:20.810 --> 01:19:21.827
with those cases.

2041
01:19:21.827 --> 01:19:23.750
But obviously sometimes,

2042
01:19:23.750 --> 01:19:25.400
people can be very hostile

2043
01:19:25.400 --> 01:19:26.820
to these connections.

2044
01:19:26.820 --> 01:19:28.200
But no, he didn't get to meet his father.

2045
01:19:28.200 --> 01:19:30.653
In both cases, the fathers were deceased.

2046
01:19:36.050 --> 01:19:37.190
<v Geoff>Okay, thank you.</v>

2047
01:19:37.190 --> 01:19:40.410
Let's go to Chris who has a question.

2048
01:19:40.410 --> 01:19:44.660
He says I have a WATO with five matches

2049
01:19:44.660 --> 01:19:45.810
for a hypothesis.

2050
01:19:45.810 --> 01:19:48.200
And when I put my great grandfather

2051
01:19:48.200 --> 01:19:49.570
where I think he fits,

2052
01:19:49.570 --> 01:19:51.700
there is a score of one.

2053
01:19:51.700 --> 01:19:54.830
But as soon as I put in any other hypotheses,

2054
01:19:54.830 --> 01:19:56.670
they all score zero.

2055
01:19:56.670 --> 01:19:58.770
Does that mean that the hypothesis one

2056
01:19:58.770 --> 01:20:01.063
is the only possible position?

2057
01:20:02.880 --> 01:20:04.080
<v Jonny>Probably is the answer.</v>

2058
01:20:04.080 --> 01:20:06.970
I mean, it would depend on how big those matches are.

2059
01:20:06.970 --> 01:20:09.890
But quite possibly, that is the only possible position.

2060
01:20:09.890 --> 01:20:11.500
In this new beta version,

2061
01:20:11.500 --> 01:20:13.800
it might be interesting to try that

2062
01:20:13.800 --> 01:20:16.040
SUGGEST HYPOTHESES button and see if it

2063
01:20:16.040 --> 01:20:17.670
comes up with anywhere else.

2064
01:20:17.670 --> 01:20:19.500
It may be that there's other possibilities

2065
01:20:19.500 --> 01:20:20.410
that you haven't considered.

2066
01:20:20.410 --> 01:20:23.141
But obviously, it looks quite promising

2067
01:20:23.141 --> 01:20:24.723
that that's the only place, yeah.

2068
01:20:27.500 --> 01:20:29.880
<v Geoff>Okay, thanks Chris and good luck.</v>

2069
01:20:29.880 --> 01:20:33.430
And let's go to, well Marian actually has a question.

2070
01:20:33.430 --> 01:20:36.570
She says, did Mary have contact with Pamela

2071
01:20:36.570 --> 01:20:39.310
after she did the DNA test?

2072
01:20:39.310 --> 01:20:40.170
<v Jonny>The answer is no.</v>

2073
01:20:40.170 --> 01:20:42.180
It's a strange one.

2074
01:20:42.180 --> 01:20:44.790
Pamela, you know, I think she's a wonderful woman

2075
01:20:44.790 --> 01:20:46.120
for doing this,

2076
01:20:46.120 --> 01:20:47.820
but she clearly did not want to enter

2077
01:20:47.820 --> 01:20:50.800
into any dialogue or any discussion about it.

2078
01:20:50.800 --> 01:20:52.160
I mean from our side we weren't looking

2079
01:20:52.160 --> 01:20:54.090
for any kind of relationship or anything,

2080
01:20:54.090 --> 01:20:56.330
we just wanted to make the connection

2081
01:20:56.330 --> 01:20:58.810
because primarily she wanted medical information.

2082
01:20:58.810 --> 01:21:00.683
But no, we never had a word from her.

2083
01:21:01.710 --> 01:21:02.930
And obviously it could just be that one day

2084
01:21:02.930 --> 01:21:05.280
she felt hey, I'm gonna take a DNA test.

2085
01:21:05.280 --> 01:21:07.040
But I would assume that she did do it

2086
01:21:07.040 --> 01:21:08.940
in response to my message.

2087
01:21:08.940 --> 01:21:11.390
But, she's never given me any indication of that.

2088
01:21:12.440 --> 01:21:13.850
<v Geoff>Okay, thank you.</v>

2089
01:21:13.850 --> 01:21:17.710
Richard asks, would it help to further verify

2090
01:21:20.693 --> 01:21:23.250
the possibility of identifying Mary's father

2091
01:21:23.250 --> 01:21:26.023
if the other potential cousins were also tested?

2092
01:21:27.570 --> 01:21:28.695
<v Jonny>Sure, yeah.</v>

2093
01:21:28.695 --> 01:21:30.580
I mean, the more people in that family I could test,

2094
01:21:30.580 --> 01:21:32.150
the better.

2095
01:21:32.150 --> 01:21:36.000
The realities of persuading someone who has no knowledge

2096
01:21:36.000 --> 01:21:38.200
of you, and no interest in genealogy,

2097
01:21:38.200 --> 01:21:39.700
to take a DNA test,

2098
01:21:39.700 --> 01:21:42.010
and the cost means it's not really feasible.

2099
01:21:42.010 --> 01:21:44.630
But, obviously purely from a how much evidence

2100
01:21:44.630 --> 01:21:46.400
do we have perspective,

2101
01:21:46.400 --> 01:21:48.900
the more cousins we could have tested, the better.

2102
01:21:49.790 --> 01:21:53.330
Certainly I could only get a response from one.

2103
01:21:53.330 --> 01:21:57.580
And, obviously I felt comfortable with the outcome.

2104
01:21:57.580 --> 01:22:00.490
But yeah, I would always welcome more evidence definitely.

2105
01:22:00.490 --> 01:22:01.610
<v Geoff>Okay, thank you.</v>

2106
01:22:01.610 --> 01:22:03.580
Let's go to Robin who asks

2107
01:22:03.580 --> 01:22:07.690
if I have 40 to one odds on one hypothesis,

2108
01:22:07.690 --> 01:22:10.600
and the next hypothesis is two times more likely

2109
01:22:10.600 --> 01:22:12.080
than that one,

2110
01:22:12.080 --> 01:22:14.093
which one is most promising?

2111
01:22:15.100 --> 01:22:17.120
<v Jonny>Well the one that's two times more likely</v>

2112
01:22:17.120 --> 01:22:18.780
is more promising.

2113
01:22:18.780 --> 01:22:22.223
But it's not enough multiples to really be compelling.

2114
01:22:23.240 --> 01:22:25.810
If it was maybe 100 times as much,

2115
01:22:25.810 --> 01:22:27.240
that would be more compelling.

2116
01:22:27.240 --> 01:22:28.510
Even then obviously you don't know

2117
01:22:28.510 --> 01:22:31.100
that there isn't another one that you haven't considered.

2118
01:22:31.100 --> 01:22:32.800
If you just have an 18 to 40,

2119
01:22:32.800 --> 01:22:34.220
I mean that's great.

2120
01:22:34.220 --> 01:22:35.680
They're both possible.

2121
01:22:35.680 --> 01:22:37.250
And they're both obviously a lot more likely

2122
01:22:37.250 --> 01:22:38.410
than another one.

2123
01:22:38.410 --> 01:22:40.158
But I wouldn't say it means

2124
01:22:40.158 --> 01:22:42.950
the 80 is dramatically more likely than the 40, no.

2125
01:22:42.950 --> 01:22:44.051
<v Geoff>Okay, thank you.</v>

2126
01:22:44.051 --> 01:22:44.884
<v Jonny>If you're looking for more evidence</v>

2127
01:22:44.884 --> 01:22:46.543
to try and get closer.

2128
01:22:47.380 --> 01:22:48.213
<v Geoff>Good.</v>

2129
01:22:48.213 --> 01:22:49.380
All right, let's go to Joan

2130
01:22:49.380 --> 01:22:53.230
who asks is there a limit to the GEDCOM size

2131
01:22:53.230 --> 01:22:54.660
that can be uploaded?

2132
01:22:54.660 --> 01:22:56.590
<v Jonny>Very good question.</v>

2133
01:22:56.590 --> 01:22:58.130
Yes, but that limit will vary.

2134
01:22:58.130 --> 01:23:02.300
So, I used your computer to do the processing, right?

2135
01:23:02.300 --> 01:23:04.200
So you browse for your file.

2136
01:23:04.200 --> 01:23:05.550
It doesn't leave your computer.

2137
01:23:05.550 --> 01:23:08.360
So depending on how new your computer is,

2138
01:23:08.360 --> 01:23:09.840
your computer may be able to handle

2139
01:23:09.840 --> 01:23:12.727
quite a decent size GEDCOM.

2140
01:23:14.140 --> 01:23:16.010
I think I have a limit of 60 megabytes.

2141
01:23:16.010 --> 01:23:17.440
It's very unlikely that your GEDCOM

2142
01:23:17.440 --> 01:23:18.803
would be more than that.

2143
01:23:20.180 --> 01:23:21.310
It might take a little while

2144
01:23:21.310 --> 01:23:22.880
to bring that list of the people up

2145
01:23:22.880 --> 01:23:23.940
because I'm going through the list

2146
01:23:23.940 --> 01:23:24.773
and saying well,

2147
01:23:24.773 --> 01:23:29.410
do you want Charles Smith and all his spouses

2148
01:23:29.410 --> 01:23:30.440
or do you just want Charles Smith

2149
01:23:30.440 --> 01:23:31.451
and this spouse?

2150
01:23:31.451 --> 01:23:34.200
So it's a little bit of processing going on there.

2151
01:23:34.200 --> 01:23:36.971
But, yeah, well to be honest,

2152
01:23:36.971 --> 01:23:39.280
the feature's new.

2153
01:23:39.280 --> 01:23:41.750
So I'm awaiting more feedback from people.

2154
01:23:41.750 --> 01:23:44.310
But you don't have to worry too much if you've got,

2155
01:23:44.310 --> 01:23:47.180
even if you have five, 10, 15, 20,000 people

2156
01:23:47.180 --> 01:23:48.930
in your GEDCOM.

2157
01:23:48.930 --> 01:23:50.760
I wouldn't anticipate a problem.

2158
01:23:50.760 --> 01:23:52.030
<v Geoff>Oh, very good.</v>

2159
01:23:52.030 --> 01:23:54.040
Okay, here's a question from someone

2160
01:23:54.040 --> 01:23:56.050
where I don't have their name here.

2161
01:23:56.050 --> 01:23:58.540
But they say, the difficult thing for me

2162
01:23:58.540 --> 01:24:02.035
with WATO is knowing what score is enough.

2163
01:24:02.035 --> 01:24:06.170
Obviously more than zero.

2164
01:24:06.170 --> 01:24:08.760
But do I need to get a score of 20

2165
01:24:08.760 --> 01:24:12.130
or 50 or what to--

2166
01:24:12.130 --> 01:24:13.420
<v Jonny>Sure.</v>

2167
01:24:13.420 --> 01:24:16.710
It's a very common and reasonable question.

2168
01:24:16.710 --> 01:24:18.610
<v ->Okay.</v>
<v ->But yeah.</v>

2169
01:24:18.610 --> 01:24:20.460
It isn't really like that.

2170
01:24:20.460 --> 01:24:22.330
I think I mentioned in the presentation

2171
01:24:22.330 --> 01:24:25.580
that Leah, the creator of the concept of the tool

2172
01:24:25.580 --> 01:24:26.590
in the first place,

2173
01:24:26.590 --> 01:24:30.390
she made the point because we've kind of worked together

2174
01:24:30.390 --> 01:24:31.600
hearing about people's stories

2175
01:24:31.600 --> 01:24:33.700
in the Facebook group over a few years now,

2176
01:24:33.700 --> 01:24:35.517
and so this question comes up a lot.

2177
01:24:35.517 --> 01:24:37.940
I mean obviously to return to the previous question

2178
01:24:37.940 --> 01:24:39.260
where someone asked me

2179
01:24:39.260 --> 01:24:41.040
would it have been good to test more cousins?

2180
01:24:41.040 --> 01:24:41.950
Well, yeah.

2181
01:24:41.950 --> 01:24:44.050
If I could kind of triangulating,

2182
01:24:44.050 --> 01:24:46.410
get closer and closer to where Mary was,

2183
01:24:46.410 --> 01:24:48.850
eventually I could get to the position

2184
01:24:48.850 --> 01:24:51.300
where there was only one possible hypothesis.

2185
01:24:51.300 --> 01:24:52.133
And in that case,

2186
01:24:52.133 --> 01:24:53.560
the score would be one.

2187
01:24:53.560 --> 01:24:54.640
And I would be delighted

2188
01:24:54.640 --> 01:24:55.970
because that would kind of prove

2189
01:24:55.970 --> 01:24:57.700
because if nothing else is possible,

2190
01:24:57.700 --> 01:24:59.140
a score of one is great.

2191
01:24:59.140 --> 01:25:00.173
So you kinda have to,

2192
01:25:00.173 --> 01:25:02.030
it's slightly mind bending.

2193
01:25:02.030 --> 01:25:03.320
But it's an odds ratio.

2194
01:25:03.320 --> 01:25:05.120
So you have to ask yourself,

2195
01:25:05.120 --> 01:25:08.100
well have I considered every possible hypothesis?

2196
01:25:08.100 --> 01:25:10.860
And also, have I got the hypothesis,

2197
01:25:10.860 --> 01:25:13.080
which is very, very unlikely mathematically,

2198
01:25:13.080 --> 01:25:15.800
it might be artificially pushing the others up.

2199
01:25:15.800 --> 01:25:18.130
So it might be that there's an extreme out player

2200
01:25:18.130 --> 01:25:21.900
possibility that some strange combination is possible.

2201
01:25:21.900 --> 01:25:24.910
But in fact, if you look at it with your genealogy hat on,

2202
01:25:24.910 --> 01:25:26.950
it might be completely inappropriate.

2203
01:25:26.950 --> 01:25:28.250
And you might be better to remove it.

2204
01:25:28.250 --> 01:25:30.550
It might be pushing the other scores up.

2205
01:25:30.550 --> 01:25:32.940
So it's better not to,

2206
01:25:32.940 --> 01:25:34.093
there's no absolute answer to

2207
01:25:34.093 --> 01:25:35.810
well do you need a score of 20?

2208
01:25:35.810 --> 01:25:37.400
Do you need a score of 50?

2209
01:25:37.400 --> 01:25:38.580
Do you need a score of 100?

2210
01:25:38.580 --> 01:25:40.470
The only answer really is some,

2211
01:25:40.470 --> 01:25:42.460
in order for you to think wow,

2212
01:25:42.460 --> 01:25:43.890
this must definitely be it,

2213
01:25:43.890 --> 01:25:45.790
you don't even have to have a situation

2214
01:25:45.790 --> 01:25:48.920
where you'd considered all possible hypotheses

2215
01:25:48.920 --> 01:25:49.953
and you had one which had say,

2216
01:25:49.953 --> 01:25:52.910
a 150 times the value of any other.

2217
01:25:52.910 --> 01:25:55.747
Or, you had considered all the hypotheses

2218
01:25:55.747 --> 01:25:58.450
and they were all ruled out apart from one.

2219
01:25:58.450 --> 01:26:00.810
The reality for most cases is that neither

2220
01:26:00.810 --> 01:26:02.280
of these things are gonna happen.

2221
01:26:02.280 --> 01:26:05.730
There might be multiple mathematically possible places

2222
01:26:05.730 --> 01:26:06.563
in the tree.

2223
01:26:06.563 --> 01:26:09.270
And you'd have to keep using genealogy

2224
01:26:09.270 --> 01:26:10.650
and other facts to figure out

2225
01:26:10.650 --> 01:26:12.070
which one is most likely.

2226
01:26:12.070 --> 01:26:13.710
Often by target testing.

2227
01:26:13.710 --> 01:26:15.250
I wish there was an easier answer than that,

2228
01:26:15.250 --> 01:26:17.660
but that's life.

2229
01:26:17.660 --> 01:26:19.150
<v Geoff>Good, thanks so much.</v>

2230
01:26:19.150 --> 01:26:21.670
And we've got time just for another question or two here.

2231
01:26:21.670 --> 01:26:23.860
Let's go to, well this question was asked

2232
01:26:23.860 --> 01:26:27.030
quite frequently here by viewers.

2233
01:26:27.030 --> 01:26:28.640
And then specifically by Debbie.

2234
01:26:28.640 --> 01:26:30.770
She says is is possible to utilize this

2235
01:26:30.770 --> 01:26:34.980
to find or identify fourth grade grandparents

2236
01:26:34.980 --> 01:26:37.260
or even perhaps further back?

2237
01:26:37.260 --> 01:26:42.260
Is there, I mean, how far can you reasonably--

2238
01:26:42.280 --> 01:26:43.780
<v Jonny>Yes, a brilliant question isn't it?</v>

2239
01:26:43.780 --> 01:26:46.160
I mean, we'd all love to go crazy, right?

2240
01:26:46.160 --> 01:26:48.770
I mean, where are our most of our brick walls

2241
01:26:48.770 --> 01:26:49.763
if we're genealogists?

2242
01:26:49.763 --> 01:26:51.230
They're gonna be at that third, fourth,

2243
01:26:51.230 --> 01:26:53.700
fifth, sixth, seventh great grandparent level.

2244
01:26:53.700 --> 01:26:54.533
And we'd love to use it.

2245
01:26:54.533 --> 01:26:55.857
And the answer is, to be honest,

2246
01:26:55.857 --> 01:26:58.600
autosomal DNA is less useful

2247
01:26:58.600 --> 01:27:00.270
the further you go back, right?

2248
01:27:00.270 --> 01:27:04.590
So if you've got an unknown parentage situation

2249
01:27:04.590 --> 01:27:06.740
and it's a male and it's four, five,

2250
01:27:06.740 --> 01:27:08.490
six generations back,

2251
01:27:08.490 --> 01:27:11.040
ideally Y DNA would be your first port of call.

2252
01:27:11.040 --> 01:27:12.950
Which is gonna be much more reliable.

2253
01:27:12.950 --> 01:27:15.290
The further back the mystery ancestor is,

2254
01:27:15.290 --> 01:27:17.450
the harder it's gonna be to isolate

2255
01:27:17.450 --> 01:27:19.740
which of your DNA matches are relevant

2256
01:27:19.740 --> 01:27:21.240
to the ancestor.

2257
01:27:21.240 --> 01:27:23.260
And the harder it's gonna be to know

2258
01:27:23.260 --> 01:27:25.080
that there isn't cross contamination

2259
01:27:25.080 --> 01:27:27.310
and that you're not related to these matches

2260
01:27:27.310 --> 01:27:28.500
in a different way.

2261
01:27:28.500 --> 01:27:32.260
So what is, the limit is gonna depend on your matches.

2262
01:27:32.260 --> 01:27:34.550
So certainly, a parent or a grandparent,

2263
01:27:34.550 --> 01:27:35.780
you should be in pretty good shape.

2264
01:27:35.780 --> 01:27:37.760
You should potentially have the ability

2265
01:27:37.760 --> 01:27:39.840
to separate those matches out.

2266
01:27:39.840 --> 01:27:41.453
Once you get further back,

2267
01:27:41.453 --> 01:27:43.090
it's gonna be much more difficult

2268
01:27:43.090 --> 01:27:45.600
and you're gonna know much less reliably

2269
01:27:45.600 --> 01:27:49.350
that you even got DNA from these ancestors.

2270
01:27:49.350 --> 01:27:50.930
You know, it may be that you didn't even get

2271
01:27:50.930 --> 01:27:53.380
any discernible DNA from say a fourth or fifth

2272
01:27:54.540 --> 01:27:55.960
great grandparent.

2273
01:27:55.960 --> 01:27:58.333
So yeah, I think the tool is,

2274
01:27:59.930 --> 01:28:01.970
it's a party to the regular limitations

2275
01:28:01.970 --> 01:28:03.501
of autosomal DNA.

2276
01:28:03.501 --> 01:28:04.470
You have to bear that in mind.

2277
01:28:04.470 --> 01:28:05.940
<v Geoff>Okay, appreciate it.</v>

2278
01:28:05.940 --> 01:28:07.370
Well Jonny, we're at that time

2279
01:28:07.370 --> 01:28:10.890
where we say we can't believe how fast

2280
01:28:10.890 --> 01:28:12.240
the time went.

2281
01:28:12.240 --> 01:28:13.680
But, the yeah, thanks.

2282
01:28:13.680 --> 01:28:15.040
This has been really wonderful,

2283
01:28:15.040 --> 01:28:17.640
educational, inspiring,

2284
01:28:17.640 --> 01:28:18.610
and so on.

2285
01:28:18.610 --> 01:28:21.250
But do you have any parting thoughts

2286
01:28:21.250 --> 01:28:22.453
before we say goodbye?

2287
01:28:23.360 --> 01:28:24.820
<v Jonny>Well, I guess my main thought</v>

2288
01:28:24.820 --> 01:28:28.327
is I hope everyone really likes this beta.

2289
01:28:28.327 --> 01:28:31.740
It's been with a small test group for a little while.

2290
01:28:31.740 --> 01:28:34.140
If you run into any trouble,

2291
01:28:34.140 --> 01:28:36.890
send an email to info@dnapainter.com

2292
01:28:36.890 --> 01:28:38.600
and I will take a look.

2293
01:28:38.600 --> 01:28:40.840
But yeah, it's been a pleasure to do this today.

2294
01:28:40.840 --> 01:28:42.180
I want to thank you in particular Geoff

2295
01:28:42.180 --> 01:28:45.520
because when we chatted in Amsterdam last year,

2296
01:28:45.520 --> 01:28:47.970
you said to me why don't you do one of these?

2297
01:28:47.970 --> 01:28:50.750
And I think that gave me part of my motivation

2298
01:28:50.750 --> 01:28:53.084
to work on the beta 'cause I knew this was coming up.

2299
01:28:53.084 --> 01:28:54.100
You always have to have these things

2300
01:28:54.100 --> 01:28:55.140
driving you on, don't you?

2301
01:28:55.140 --> 01:28:56.470
So thank you for that.

2302
01:28:56.470 --> 01:28:57.810
<v Geoff>Oh wonderful.</v>

2303
01:28:57.810 --> 01:28:58.740
Well thank you.

2304
01:28:58.740 --> 01:29:00.880
I mean, everyone here is thanking you

2305
01:29:00.880 --> 01:29:02.600
for the work that you do for all of us.

2306
01:29:02.600 --> 01:29:05.640
So, we're glad for you and your team.

2307
01:29:05.640 --> 01:29:09.310
And so everyone head over to DNAPainter.com,

2308
01:29:09.310 --> 01:29:12.363
click on tools and get exploring.

2309
01:29:13.210 --> 01:29:14.960
When you have a success,

2310
01:29:14.960 --> 01:29:17.020
will you write about it to me?

2311
01:29:17.020 --> 01:29:18.040
I'd love to hear about it.

2312
01:29:18.040 --> 01:29:20.160
And I'll share it with Jonny.

2313
01:29:20.160 --> 01:29:21.550
All right, thanks to Jonny.

2314
01:29:21.550 --> 01:29:23.430
Thanks to all of you for being here with us.

2315
01:29:23.430 --> 01:29:26.340
And, wherever and whenever you are

2316
01:29:26.340 --> 01:29:27.173
around the world,

2317
01:29:27.173 --> 01:29:28.700
thanks for sharing part of your day with us.

2318
01:29:28.700 --> 01:29:30.960
And remember, life is short.

2319
01:29:30.960 --> 01:29:33.780
Do genealogy first.

2320
01:29:33.780 --> 01:29:34.640
Bye everyone.

2321
01:29:34.640 --> 01:29:35.473
Bye Jonny.

2322
01:29:35.473 --> 01:29:36.306
Thanks so much.

2323
01:29:36.306 --> 01:29:37.139
<v Jonny>Thanks, bye.</v>